Kyiv residents are unlikely to flee the Ukrainian capital in mass numbers despite persistent Russian missile and drone attacks, sociologist Oleksiy Antypovych said.
Antypovych, who heads the Rating Sociological Group, told Ukrainian news agency UNIAN that while frustration among residents is high, it has not translated into concrete actions indicating a mass departure from the city.
Kyiv, the capital of Ukraine, has faced regular aerial bombardments since Russia launched its full-scale invasion in February 2022. Rating Group is one of the country's primary independent polling organisations that tracks public sentiment during the war.
Antypovych stated that the current situation is fundamentally different from the early days of the invasion in late February and early March 2022, when large numbers of people fled Kyiv. At that time, Russian forces were stationed outside the capital, creating a direct ground threat rather than hazards coming solely from the sky.
He added that the vast majority of citizens who wanted to leave Ukraine for safety abroad have already departed. As a result, Antypovych said he does not observe panic sentiments taking hold among the population.
Public sentiment and energy threats
Recalling survey data from late last year conducted ahead of winter energy disruptions, Antypovych noted that roughly 80 percent of respondents across Ukraine declared they would stay put even if electricity and heating supplies deteriorated.
Although exact updated figures were not available, the sociologist suspected that a similar majority, or perhaps a slightly smaller proportion, would choose to remain in their homes under similar conditions today.
The security environment in Kyiv remains defined by constant air raid warnings and shelling. However, Antypovych noted that aerial threats have quieted down somewhat compared to the heavy bombardment experienced in late August and throughout September.
Decisions to leave the capital will depend heavily on the safety situation in the skies, according to Antypovych. He observed that residents who possess financial resources and the ability to work remotely are the most likely to consider moving.
While missile threats and potential power outages affect many regions across Ukraine, Antypovych highlighted that Kyiv residents exhibit higher levels of dissatisfaction with current conditions than residents in other parts of the country. However, he reiterated that this discontent has not led to organised relocation.
Regional risks and warnings of intensified strikes
The sociologist emphasized that Kyiv is not unique in facing regular aerial bombardment. Similar ongoing missile and drone threats are currently experienced in other major Ukrainian cities, including Dnipro, Zaporizhzhia, and Poltava.
Dnipro and Zaporizhzhia are key industrial centers in southern and eastern Ukraine, while Poltava sits in central Ukraine. Urban centers across the nation have repeatedly been targeted by strikes aimed at damaging infrastructure and disrupting essential services.
The sociologist's comments follow warnings issued in early October by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who stated that Russian President Vladimir Putin plans to intensify air attacks on Kyiv in an effort to force residents to flee the capital.
Ukrainian military commanders have echoed those concerns regarding Russia's strategic objectives in the capital. Yuriy Fedorenko, commander of the 429th Separate Unmanned Systems Brigade Achilles, said Russian forces are focusing on terrorising the civilian population of Kyiv.
Fedorenko stated that the primary objective of these intensified attacks is to compel Kyiv residents and workers to abandon the city and seek safety elsewhere in Ukraine or abroad.
