Supertankers carrying Persian Gulf crude oil are disabling their satellite tracking systems to navigate the Strait of Hormuz undetected and evade Iranian drone attacks.
The covert tactic, supported by the United States Navy, is moving between eight million and nine million barrels of oil daily through the vital waterway to prevent global crude prices from soaring.
On July 25, a supertanker measuring more than 300 meters long approached the Mesaieed oil terminal in Qatar, located 40 kilometers south of Doha. Four days later on July 29, loaded with crude oil, the vessel set course for the Strait of Hormuz.
On July 31, shortly after noon as it neared Dubai, the vessel turned off its Automatic Identification System transponder and vanished from maritime tracking charts. The transponder broadcasts a vessel identity, position, and course to international shipping services.
The signal reappeared at 10 a.m. the following day after the vessel had completed its transit of the strait. According to reporting from news outlet Axios, the operation is part of a broader secret effort through which American forces are supporting the movement of 10 million barrels of crude daily.
State-owned oil companies from Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates have chartered tankers to carry out these unmonitored transits. Operating under the protection of the U.S. fleet, the tankers transport oil from the Persian Gulf into the Gulf of Oman.
In the Gulf of Oman, the crude is transferred to buyer-owned tankers while the original vessels return to Persian Gulf ports for new loads. This process shifts much of the financial insurance risk from international commercial charterers to the oil-producing nations themselves.
Secret Transits Mask True Volume of Persian Gulf Exports
The covert transits mean global oil markets are receiving significantly more supply than recorded in official tracking data. The U.S. Department of Energy estimates that eight to nine million barrels of crude pass through the Strait of Hormuz each day under dark conditions.
That figure is roughly double the estimates published by Wall Street analysts and shipping intelligence firms such as Kpler, which rely primarily on active Automatic Identification System signals. The discrepancy is explained by vessels disappearing from digital charts during transit.
Maritime monitors recorded more than 12 ship-to-ship transfers in the Gulf of Oman over a single two-day period. Cargoes from these transfers continued onward to destination markets in China, Taiwan, South Korea, the Philippines, Vietnam, and Thailand.
The new shipping strategy comes during a severe crisis in global energy markets. Ongoing conflict has disrupted approximately one-fifth of the world oil supply for about six months.
Commercial fuel inventories have dropped drastically, U.S. strategic crude reserves have fallen to levels not seen since the early 1980s, and China is drawing down its domestic stockpiles to restrain international price spikes.
Narrow Waterway Poses Detection Risks for Dark Vessels
The dark passage tactic carries significant operational risks. The Strait of Hormuz measures just 37 kilometers wide at its narrowest point, allowing dark tankers to be detected by radar and satellite surveillance even when transponders are inactive.
Two commercial vessels belonging to the United Arab Emirates were recently attacked while navigating the area. Despite the ongoing danger, shipping intelligence firm Kpler reported that roughly 80 percent of traffic through the strait over the past two weeks occurred without active transponders.
Tanker captains are keeping as close as possible to the Omani coastline to maintain distance from Iran. Satellite imagery captured on August 14 revealed rows of vessel dots moving in an arc along the coast of Oman with no corresponding records in digital tracking databases.
Middle East Producers Reroute Exports and Ramp Up Output
Covert transits are one of several measures Middle Eastern producers are using to sustain crude exports. Saudi Arabia has rerouted around five million barrels per day through its East-West Pipeline to the port of Yanbu on the Red Sea, bypassing Persian Gulf export routes.
Other regional oil producers have managed to bypass the Strait of Hormuz by an additional two million barrels per day. Concurrently, crude oil production has expanded in other parts of the world to offset Middle Eastern supply disruptions.
Oil producers in Brazil, Guyana, and Venezuela have collectively added more than one million barrels per day to global markets, while the United States is producing hundreds of thousands of extra barrels daily.
To manage consumer demand and cushion supply shortfalls, Washington released 400 million barrels of crude from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, sharply reducing U.S. emergency stockpiles. China has also drawn from its reserves while curbing crude imports, and high fuel prices have reduced overall global consumption.
Global Refining Capacity Faces Widespread Strain
Supply pressures have become increasingly evident in refined fuel markets. Three of the world four main refining hubs are operating under severe strain, with Middle Eastern refineries damaged by conflict and reducing regional product exports.
In Eastern Europe, Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian refineries have forced Moscow to restrict fuel exports to address domestic shortages. China has also limited its refined product exports to preserve domestic supplies.
An increasing burden is falling on American refineries along the Gulf of Mexico coast, which cannot operate at maximum capacity indefinitely. The strain is especially acute for gasoline, diesel, and aviation jet fuel, where refining capacity remains insufficient to meet demand.
Diplomatic Shift Drives Crude Prices Toward 100 Dollars
Former President Donald Trump had kept market expectations contained for months by highlighting prospective diplomatic progress. However, U.S. policy has since shifted toward sustained economic and naval pressure on Iran.
The strategic shift has gradually driven international oil prices higher, with crude now nearing 100 dollars per barrel. Global oil inventories are estimated to have fallen by up to 1.9 billion barrels during the six months of conflict.
Energy analysts note that even if markets stabilize, global stockpiles will need to be replenished. If reserves are not rebuilt, prices will need to rise further to suppress global consumption and balance supply with demand.
The ongoing struggle over the Strait of Hormuz continues to keep prices for crude oil, gasoline, diesel, and aviation fuel elevated, driving inflation and eroding consumer purchasing power worldwide.
Market observers stress that without the coordinated transit operations, alternative pipelines, extra global production, and strategic reserve releases, the global economy would have faced its largest supply disruption in history.
Iran Issues Transit Permits to Selected Iraqi Tankers
In a separate development, Iran has issued special transit permits to selected crude oil tankers with Iraqi commercial interests, allowing them to pass through the Strait of Hormuz.
Iranian official news agency IRNA reported that the Iranian government granted the exemptions over the past six months following repeated formal requests from Baghdad. The report noted that strict military enforcement by the United States has continued in the waterway throughout the conflict.
IRNA reported that six months of conflict have demonstrated that Iraq has no viable alternative for exporting the bulk of its crude oil outside the Strait of Hormuz. Iraq derives nearly 90 percent of its national revenue from crude oil sales and exported most of its petroleum through the strait prior to the outbreak of hostilities.
