Political analysts claim a scheme is underway to compel Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez to share sovereignty over Ceuta and Melilla with Morocco. The proposed arrangement would begin with co-sovereignty over the autonomous cities before eventually ceding full control to the North African nation.
According to analysts, the effort is supported by repeated statements from leaders in Donald Trump's Republican Party in the United States and explicit backing from Benjamin Netanyahu's government in Israel. Both political factions consider King Mohammed VI of Morocco a preferred ally and view him as legitimate to exercise control over the Spanish cities.
Proponents of the strategy argue that Moroccan control over Ceuta would guarantee the United States total power over the Strait of Gibraltar without depending on Spain or European partners. Great Britain, a permanent ally of the United States, holds the opposite side of the Strait from its military base on the Rock of Gibraltar.
Strategic importance of the Strait of Gibraltar
The Strait of Gibraltar provides the only maritime passage connecting the Atlantic Ocean to the Mediterranean Sea. More than one-third of global merchant shipping passes through the 15-kilometer waterway, and any blockage would deprive Western countries of a third of their import capacity.
Great Britain maintains a naval base and a military airport on Gibraltar despite the small size of the territory. By contrast, Spain does not have an airport in Ceuta, requiring air travel to the autonomous city to take place by helicopter from Malaga.
The U.S. Department of State said yesterday that the invasion of Ceuta was a direct consequence of the Spanish government's shameful refusal to defend its sovereignty, secure its borders, and protect its people. Observers note that the border at Ceuta marks a perimeter for both Spain and Europe.
Dispute over territorial sovereignty and alliances
Some analysts conclude that if the Spanish executive cannot protect its territory, Morocco is prepared to exercise sovereignty with the same force it displayed in the former Spanish Sahara. American neoconservatives and leaders in Tel Aviv view Sánchez and Europe as untrustworthy and prefer to secure the Strait under Mohammed VI, who would follow directions from Washington and Tel Aviv.
Ceuta has belonged to Spain since 1668. That history predates United States independence by 108 years, the creation of the state of Israel by 280 years, and Moroccan independence by 288 years.
Former agent outlines civil invasion strategy
In his book titled The Backroom of the Intelligence Services, former National Intelligence Center agent Fernando San Agustín detailed the strategy attributed to Morocco. He wrote that Morocco intends to capitalize on internal Spanish political division by launching a massive civil invasion.
San Agustín stated that the resulting chaos in Ceuta and Melilla would force Sánchez to accept co-sovereignty to prevent a war. The former intelligence official indicated that the plan targets a date before 2030.
