Tens of thousands of people arrived at the border in Ceuta, prompting debate over whether Moroccan authorities and King Mohammed VI are using migration as a weapon. The large border operation has raised questions about whether civil migration flows are being deployed as an instrument of political and territorial pressure against Spain and the wider European continent.
The events recall the Green March 50 years ago, when Morocco advanced into Western Sahara by taking advantage of Spanish political weakness in the final days of Francoism. When a neighboring nation discovers it can alter the Spanish agenda and cause concern across Europe through border pressure, it gains a powerful negotiation lever.
The crisis has renewed scrutiny of Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez, including what concessions he has made to Rabat and what price he is willing to pay. Spain's 2022 policy shift regarding Western Sahara broke with decades of established diplomatic stance and has yet to receive a fully convincing political explanation.
Public Perception and Political Concessions
According to a poll published by the newspaper La Razón, six out of 10 Spaniards believe King Mohammed VI exercises some form of blackmail over Prime Minister Sánchez. While public opinion does not in itself prove blackmail, it demonstrates a growing deficit of public trust each time the Spanish government yields to the Alaouite crown, including agreeing to hand over the final of the World Cup.
Morocco holds a strategic advantage by exploiting poor relations between Sánchez and US President Donald Trump. Close ties between Rabat and the United States, alongside backing from the Trump administration, provide Morocco with international coverage that enhances its ability to exert pressure.
European Divisions and Diplomatic Strain
The border pressure has also exposed internal divisions within Europe, including a diplomatic crisis between Spain and Italy regarding the Schengen area. The dispute highlights how border friction can create mutual distrust among European partners.
These European cracks reflect a broader outcome of Morocco's strategy of divide and conquer, enabling Rabat to expand its room to maneuver while European nations remain divided.
