Ukraine's exchange rate will remain between 44.6 and 45.1 hryvnias per US dollar through September 6, according to Globus Bank department director Taras Liesovyi.
The euro is expected to trade in a parallel range of 51 to 52.5 hryvnias on both interbank and cash markets during the first week of September, while cash dollar rates at exchange kiosks will fluctuate between 44.6 and 45.2 hryvnias.
Speaking to Ukrainian news agency UNIAN, Liesovyi said that while the projected trading corridors appear broad, they indicate controlled flexibility rather than any danger of sharp currency devaluation. He noted that the exchange movement reflects ongoing war risks, foreign trade conditions, and sustained foreign currency demand from Ukrainian importers.
Several distinct factors will exert simultaneous pressure on the currency market during the coming weeks. Military attacks using missiles and long-range drones are steadily pushing up corporate expenditures on production, warehousing, freight, power generation, and risk insurance. Because commercial enterprises cannot absorb these mounting expenses indefinitely, businesses will inevitably pass a portion of these costs into consumer prices for everyday products and services.
Fuel costs form a second major factor shaping the exchange outlook. Liesovyi stated that retail fuel prices depend on multiple variables, including international crude oil benchmarks, foreign exchange rates, transport logistics, and supply route security. As a result, forecasting pump prices at filling stations is significantly more complex during autumn than under stable economic conditions.
Factors Driving Autumn Currency Demand
High purchasing activity among commercial importers will also maintain continuous pressure on foreign currency supplies. Liesovyi noted that demand for foreign exchange is likely to systematically exceed natural market supply by 15% to 20% during the first week of September.
Market dynamics will also be influenced by consumer psychology, as public sensitivity to negative news typically heightens at the start of autumn. If distressing headlines coincide with price increases or short-term product shortages, some citizens may traditionally attempt to protect their savings by buying foreign currency.
However, Liesovyi stated that widespread crowds and long queues outside exchange offices should not be expected. He explained that households face several competing priorities for their unallocated hryvnia funds, such as holding cash reserves for unexpected emergencies, preparing for potential energy grid disruptions, or purchasing bulk supplies of food and water.
The banker warned that the primary risk facing consumers is acting with excessive haste during brief spikes in demand. At such times, exchange kiosks may expand the spread between buying and selling rates to 1 to 1.3 hryvnias or more, forcing panicked buyers to pay an artificial price markup.
Recent Market Rates and Banking Data
The early September forecast follows steady exchange rates recorded across Ukrainian financial establishments earlier in the week. On August 27, average exchange booth rates in Ukraine stood at 44.67 hryvnias to buy one US dollar and 44.77 hryvnias to sell. Cash euro rates at exchange offices averaged 51.95 hryvnias for buying and 52.15 hryvnias for selling.
Commercial banks also adjusted their foreign exchange pricing on the same day. PrivatBank, Ukraine's largest commercial bank, lowered its dollar and euro rates by 10 kopecks on August 27, bringing its dollar exchange rate to 44.75 hryvnias and its euro rate to 52.35 hryvnias.
Background on Executive Taras Liesovyi
Taras Liesovyi serves as Director of the Financial Markets and Investment Activity Department at Globus Bank, a Ukrainian commercial lender established in 2007 and headquartered in Kyiv. He graduated from Kyiv State Economic University in 1998 with a master's degree in economics, specializing in finance and credit.
Liesovyi has accumulated nearly 30 years of professional experience across Ukraine's banking sector. His career includes early roles at Bank Ukraina from 1998 to 2000 and National Investments from 2000 to 2005, followed by two separate tenures at state commercial lender Ukrgasbank from 2005 to 2009 and 2010 to 2014. He initially joined Globus Bank from 2009 to 2010 before returning to his current position in 2015.
