Russian forces have made gains in the battle for Donbas but are unlikely to seize the entire Donetsk region by the end of the year, military analyst Alfred Hackensberger wrote on the pages of German outlet Welt.
Hackensberger said Russian infiltration tactics have turned nearly all of Kostyantynivka, a key city in Donetsk region, into a gray zone where clashes can erupt at any moment. He said the town of Druzhkivka, 10 kilometers away, faces constant Russian shelling.
Kramatorsk and neighboring Sloviansk form the center of the Kyiv-controlled part of Donetsk region, Hackensberger wrote. He said around 250,000 people lived there before the Russian offensive, and today fewer than half remain, adding that Moscow intends to seize the region by any means.
Putin's deadline and infiltration tactics
Hackensberger said Russian dictator Vladimir Putin has set a goal of capturing all of Donetsk region by the end of this year, a deadline he called unrealistic given the slow pace of Russian advances and heavy losses of soldiers and equipment.
He noted that Russian forces were 30 kilometers from Kramatorsk a year ago, a distance that has since halved, crediting infiltration tactics for the gains despite the heavy losses and time they require.
Anton Samarin, deputy commander of the 93rd Brigade, said infiltrations are a problem but can be controlled by deploying special units and conducting clearing operations.
Stopping Russia's advance
Hackensberger said halting Russia in Donbas will be a key task for newly appointed Ukrainian Armed Forces commander-in-chief Mykhailo Drapatyi, calling the battle for Donbas decisive. He said Russia managed to capture an average of 1.03 square kilometers per day in June, and around 5,305 square kilometers remain for Russia to take all of Donbas.
