Peru's Interior Minister César Astudillo relies on flawed police homicide figures that artificially inflated past murder statistics, data analyst Juan Carbajal revealed.
The Ministry of the Interior reported in early July 2026 that homicides fell by 24.6 percent in the first half of the year, dropping from 1,680 to 1,267 cases compared to the same period in 2025. Astudillo used the figure to defend police leadership, asserting there were 500 more deaths at this point last year.
However, analysis of the police database shows that the apparent decline relies on severe recording errors between April and June 2025, calling into question whether the drop in violent crime is real or a statistical illusion.
The Ministry of the Interior, known as Mininter, is the cabinet-level department responsible for public security across Peru. The ministry and the National Police of Peru have used the statistical report to demonstrate that current security strategies are working, with Astudillo citing the drop to support keeping Óscar Arriola as chief of the national police force.
Flaws in Police Database
Carbajal examined the DIVCOP database of the National Police of Peru and identified a sudden surge in the category for killings committed without firearms or blades, listed in police systems as other objects. The category registered 494 cases in the first half of 2025, compared to 125 cases during the same period in 2024 and 120 cases in 2026.
While the historical monthly average for the category never exceeded 35 cases, police records accumulated 416 cases between April and June 2025 alone. A further breakdown of the data showed that the system registered 133 homicides of newborns aged zero during those three months, including 49 in April, 48 in May, and 36 in June.
In contrast, police records for the entire first half of 2024 and 2026 registered between zero and one homicide in that age group. Carbajal noted that a mass killing of newborn infants on such a scale would have triggered an immediate humanitarian alarm and widespread news coverage, neither of which occurred.
Verification with the National System of Deaths, known as Sinadef, confirmed that forensic doctors never certified a spike in infant deaths during that quarter. Sinadef serves as Peru's official mortality registry managed by medical professionals and forensic examiners. Carbajal concluded that the police database contained roughly 350 mistyped entries.
Recalculated Crime Reduction
Carbajal recalculated the figures by replacing the error-filled quarter with the normal historical average for that category. The adjustment lowers the estimated homicide total for the first half of 2025 from 1,680 down to approximately 1,330 cases.
Comparing the corrected 2025 figure to the 1,267 homicides recorded in the first half of 2026 yields a real reduction of only 4.7 percent, far below the 24.6 percent claimed by the government. Carbajal called the minister's figure of 500 fewer deaths a statistical mirage and requested an official police audit, which has not yet taken place.
The disclosures arrive at a delicate political moment for the administration. Political leader Keiko Fujimori announced an evaluation of high-ranking police officers just days before Astudillo publicly defended Arriola with the homicide statistics.
At the same time, Sinadef reported more than 80 homicides during the first 15 days of the new government, contrasting with official statements of public safety improvements.
Former Minister Questions Strategy
Former Interior Minister Wilfredo Pedraza questioned the official reduction figures in statements to reporters, saying he was unaware of the origin of the numbers cited by the minister. Pedraza stated that a change of government does not in itself cause crime rates to rise or fall.
Pedraza criticized the current administration for failing to alter police intervention strategy against organized crime. He noted that the lack of strategic changes explains why no substantive improvements have been observed in public safety.
The former minister emphasized that police operations should focus on intelligence work to identify leaders who order extortion and attacks, rather than solely arresting individual gunmen who execute the shootings.
Criticism of Plan Escudo
Pedraza also criticized Plan Escudo, a joint security operation deploying police and military personnel to protect public transportation operators. According to figures provided by a transport union leader, the initiative reaches only 53 of the 500 transport companies operating in the capital city of Lima.
Pedraza warned that while the plan may provide temporary assistance to a small fraction of affected transport workers, it fails to offer a comprehensive response to systemic crime. He urged authorities to invest in technology to track communications, noting that most extortion schemes are coordinated through social media networks and text messaging.
