The United States completed the full withdrawal of its military forces from Iraq on September 30, 2026, concluding a two-year process marked by political disputes and fluctuations.
The departure closes a major historical chapter in military and diplomatic relations between Washington and Baghdad. American troops originally deployed to Iraq in 2014 to combat the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria, also known as ISIS, after the Sunni jihadist militant group seized control of large areas of the country.
Although American forces have now left Iraqi territory, they have relocated to neighboring countries in the region. The largest portion of the withdrawn troops has been stationed in Jordan, a Hashemite kingdom bordering western Iraq that serves as a key security partner for Western nations in the Middle East.
Despite the troop departure, Iraqi authorities will maintain strategic coordination with American military commanders on regional security issues. Security officials from both the central federal government in Baghdad and the autonomous Kurdish administration in northern Iraq will continue to coordinate with US Central Command, known as CENTCOM, which oversees American forces from the Persian Gulf.
Security concerns over potential ISIS resurgence
Military officials in Baghdad have expressed serious concern over the security implications of the American exit. According to a report by the Reuters news agency, Iraqi commanders worry that the US withdrawal could create operational conditions allowing ISIS to regroup and rebuild its militant network across the region.
Defense analysts and local officials have also raised doubts about whether Iraqi forces possess the necessary operational capability to contain a resurgence independently. Questions remain over whether federal security units in Baghdad and Kurdish forces in northern Iraq can effectively counter a potential jihadist threat without direct American troop support on the ground.
Northern Iraq operates as an autonomous Kurdistan Region with its own administrative governance and Peshmerga security forces. During the military campaign against ISIS, Kurdish forces fought alongside federal Iraqi troops and American coalition forces to clear jihadist strongholds.
Trump and Al-Zaidi establish new framework
The future framework for diplomatic and military cooperation between Washington and Baghdad was established during two recent private meetings between US President Donald Trump and the new Prime Minister of Iraq, Ali Al-Zaidi. Under the terms of the agreement, the United States committed to providing economic development assistance to Iraq.
In exchange for American development aid, the government led by Prime Minister Al-Zaidi undertook a formal obligation to promote the disarmament of Iran-backed Shia militias operating within Iraqi borders. Implementing the commitment is expected to be a complex task for Baghdad, which has long attempted to balance its security ties between the United States and Iran.
Maintaining delicate diplomatic balances with Tehran remains vital for the Iraqi leadership, as Shia Muslims constitute the majority of the population in Iraq, which shares a long eastern border with Iran. Iranian political and military influence has remained substantial across Iraqi institutions for decades.
Pro-Iranian militias active in Iraq continue to represent a significant power factor in domestic and regional politics. Since the outbreak of war in the Middle East on October 7, 2023, these armed groups have launched frequent attacks, primarily using unmanned drones, against Israeli targets and American military installations located in Syria, Jordan, and the Gulf states.
Six-stage disarmament plan faces militia division
Prime Minister Al-Zaidi publicly outlined a six-stage plan for the gradual and complete disarmament of pro-Iranian militias by June 30, 2027. He first disclosed the proposal during an interview with the New York Times on September 21 before presenting it from the platform of the United Nations General Assembly in New York.
However, the government proposal faces immediate opposition from major paramilitary factions inside the country. Kata'ib Hezbollah and Hezbollah Al-Nujaba, recognized as the two strongest pro-Iranian militia organizations operating in Iraq, have publicly expressed their disagreement with the disarmament timeline and rejected the initiative.
In contrast, other armed groups have signaled a willingness to negotiate terms with federal authorities. Organizations including Asa'ib Ahl al-Haq, Kata'ib Imam Ali, and Saraya al-Salam, led by influential Shia cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, appear more open to discussions with the federal government in Baghdad regarding their eventual integration or disarming.
