The Ukrainian hryvnia is forecast to trade predominantly between 44.3 and 44.8 UAH per US dollar through September 13, according to Taras Lesovoy, director of the financial markets and investment activity department at Globus Bank.
Over the same period, the euro is expected to trade within a corridor of 51.5 to 52.5 UAH on both the interbank and cash markets, Lesovoy said in comments to Ukrainian news agency UNIAN on September 3.
Although autumn traditionally brings heightened anxiety to the foreign exchange market as business activity picks up, exchange rate dynamics in early September are likely to remain close to August levels. Situational movements may occur, but they are unlikely to turn into a sustained trend, Lesovoy noted.
Seasonal foreign currency demand
Demand for foreign currency increases during autumn as Ukrainian enterprises prepare for the winter heating season. Importers actively purchase equipment, energy resources, components, and other critical goods to ready their supply chains.
Under wartime conditions, seasonal demand is amplified by the need for backup solutions against potential Russian attacks on energy and logistics infrastructure. This requirement for operational resilience boosts demand for imports and foreign currency.
Ukraine typically begins its national heating season in October, managing gas, coal, and electricity supplies to heat homes and businesses through winter. Following extensive infrastructure damage since the 2022 invasion, Ukrainian firms have increasingly imported generators, transformers, and electrical gear.
Psychological factors also influence market behavior. Lesovoy warned that military attacks and sudden price shifts for fuel or food can alter public behavior faster than traditional macroeconomic indicators. He stressed the importance of separating media hype from actual market conditions.
Interbank and retail rate forecasts
For September 7 to September 13, Lesovoy projected interbank trading will range between 44.4 and 44.8 UAH per US dollar and 51.5 to 52.5 UAH per euro. Cash market rates are forecast between 44.3 and 44.8 UAH per dollar and 51.5 to 52.5 UAH per euro.
In Ukraine, the interbank foreign exchange market is the network where commercial financial institutions trade foreign currency. The cash market consists of physical exchange kiosks and bank branch counters used by retail customers.
On September 3, exchange offices across Ukraine listed an average dollar buying rate of 44.84 UAH and a selling rate of 44.71 UAH. Cash euro rates stood at 52.05 UAH for buying and 51.85 UAH for selling.
At state-owned PrivatBank on September 3, the dollar rate rose by 20 kopecks to 44.90 UAH per dollar. The euro exchange rate increased by 15 kopecks to 52.10 UAH per euro.
Headquartered in Kyiv, PrivatBank is Ukraine's largest commercial bank and has been state-owned since 2016. The Ukrainian hryvnia is subdivided into 100 kopecks, with major commercial banks setting retail rates that reflect broader wholesale trends.
Banking sector background
Lesovoy concluded that the autumn currency market is starting significantly calmer than external headlines might suggest.
Lesovoy brings nearly 30 years of banking experience to his role at Globus Bank. He graduated from Kyiv State Economic University in 1998 with a master's degree in economics, specializing in finance and credit.
His career includes positions at Bank Ukraina from 1998 to 2000, National Investments from 2000 to 2005, Ukrgasbank from 2005 to 2009 and 2010 to 2014, and Globus Bank from 2009 to 2010 and from 2015 to the present.
Founded in 2007, Globus Bank is a Ukrainian commercial lender based in Kyiv offering corporate, retail, and investment banking services.
