Ukraine's national currency, the hryvnia, will face renewed financial pressure during the final full week of August, though sharp exchange rate fluctuations remain unlikely due to ongoing central bank interventions, according to banking executive Taras Lesovyi.
Speaking to Ukrainian news agency UNIAN, Lesovyi forecast that between August 24 and August 30 the US dollar is most likely to trade within a range of 44.6 to 45.2 hryvnias, while the euro will fluctuate between 51 and 52.5 hryvnias.
Lesovyi, who serves as director of the financial markets and investment activity department at Globus Bank, stated that the baseline scenario for the week foresees currency market conditions remaining close to those observed throughout most of August.
However, pressure on the market is expected to rise. Military action remains the least predictable factor influencing exchange rate dynamics, as ongoing attacks against Ukrainian infrastructure directly affect economic stability.
Inflation risks and fuel prices
Russian strikes against Ukrainian logistics, energy, and manufacturing facilities have created significant additional operating expenses for domestic businesses. Lesovyi explained that companies will inevitably attempt to pass a portion of these increased overhead costs into final retail prices.
He noted that monthly inflation for August could approach 1.0% to 1.5%, potentially pushing Ukraine's annual inflation rate back above 8%. Rising inflation expectations among citizens and commercial enterprises traditionally heighten demand for foreign hard currencies as a store of value.
Fuel costs present an additional major risk area for the exchange rate. Lesovyi pointed out that pump prices in Ukraine depend not only on international crude oil and refined petroleum benchmarks, but also on local physical availability, transport logistics, and damage from military attacks on filling stations and energy infrastructure.
If fuel supply bottlenecks develop across multiple Ukrainian regions at the same time, increased distribution costs could filter through transport components into the final pricing of a broad spectrum of consumer goods.
Current exchange rates in Ukraine
Commercial exchange rates across Ukraine demonstrated mixed trends on August 20. In currency exchange kiosks, the average purchase price for the US dollar stood at 44.87 hryvnias, while exchange vendors were buying dollars from the public at 44.77 hryvnias.
Cash euro transactions at Ukrainian exchange offices on August 20 reflected a public buying rate of 52.20 hryvnias per euro and a public selling rate of 51.91 hryvnias.
At PrivatBank, Ukraine's largest commercial financial institution, the exchange rate for the US dollar decreased by 5 kopecks to 44.85 hryvnias per dollar on August 20. Simultaneously, the bank's exchange rate for the euro increased sharply by 45 kopecks, rising to 52.55 hryvnias per euro.
Seasonal factors also continue to influence public behavior. Lesovyi cited ongoing preparations for the autumn and winter heating season, along with the traditional inclination of Ukrainian citizens to secure personal savings in foreign currencies during periods of uncertainty.
Expert background and market oversight
Lesovyi possesses nearly 30 years of professional experience within the Ukrainian commercial banking sector. He graduated from Kyiv State Economic University in 1998 with a master's degree in economic sciences, specializing in finance and credit.
His executive career includes senior roles at several major Ukrainian financial institutions. He worked at Bank Ukraina from 1998 to 2000, National Investments Bank from 2000 to 2005, and Ukrgasbank during two separate periods from 2005 to 2009 and from 2010 to 2014.
Lesovyi initially joined Globus Bank in 2009, serving until 2010, before returning to the financial institution in 2015 to lead its financial markets and investment activities department.
