Ukrainian business leaders are budgeting for an exchange rate of 49 hryvnia to the US dollar in 2027, according to a survey by the European Business Association (EBA), as companies continue to plan for the possibility that the war will still be going on.
The projected rate marks a steady climb from previous years. Businesses budgeted an average of 41 hryvnia per dollar for 2024, 44 hryvnia for 2025 and 46 hryvnia for 2026, the EBA said.
This year's estimates have not yet been borne out. The dollar's highest point so far in 2026 came in June, when it reached 44.9790 hryvnia. The National Bank of Ukraine set the rate at 44.6390 hryvnia to the dollar on September 16.
The National Bank of Ukraine moved away from a fixed exchange rate in October 2023, allowing the hryvnia to trade within a managed, more flexible band rather than at a rate set directly by the central bank.
War Still Shapes Planning
The EBA said war remains the key factor that will determine business planning for 2027, with 98% of respondents saying they are building the possibility of the war continuing into their business plans.
Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, and the conflict has weighed on the country's economy and currency ever since.
The share of companies expecting negative developments for their business in 2027 rose to 39%, up from 15% a year earlier. Those expecting positive developments fell sharply, to 27% from 55% in the 2026 survey. A further 34% expect no change, close to the 33% recorded last year.
Revenue Forecasts Turn Cautious
Expectations for revenue growth have weakened across the board. The share of company leaders expecting hryvnia revenue growth in 2027 dropped to 53%, down from 77% a year ago, while the share forecasting a decline more than doubled, to 29% from 12%.
The picture is similar for revenue measured in real terms and in dollars. Growth in real terms is expected by 35% of companies and in dollars by 36%, compared with 60% and 55% respectively in last year's survey. Meanwhile, 41% of business leaders forecast a fall in foreign currency revenue and 38% expect a decline in real terms, up from just 15% in both categories a year earlier.
Investment Plans Shrink
Just 3% of companies intend to carry out major new investment projects in 2027, compared with 20% a year ago. The average value of planned projects has also fallen, from $14 million to around $5 million, the survey found.
At the same time, 83% of companies said they plan to use artificial intelligence tools in 2027 to streamline processes or improve efficiency.
What Business Wants From Government
Asked about government priorities, businesses once again pointed most often to the fight against corruption, cited by 58% of respondents. Some 40% said authorities should strengthen energy security ahead of the heating season, and 35% called for stronger protection against attacks.
The survey, "Business Forecasts for 2027", gathered responses from 88 chief executives of EBA member companies between August 18 and September 7, 2026. The EBA, which represents international and domestic companies operating in Ukraine, has run the annual survey for 11 consecutive years.
Government's Own Forecast
The government led by Prime Minister Yuliia Svyrydenko approved a Budget Declaration for 2027 to 2029 on June 17. It sets an average exchange rate of 47.1 hryvnia to the dollar for 2027, rising to 48.3 hryvnia by the end of the year.
Ukraine has relied heavily on financial support from Western partners, including the International Monetary Fund and the European Union, to help finance its budget during the war.
Ukraine's current prime minister, Serhii Koretskyi, has officially warned that the country may have to carry out a tough sequestration of the budget if the Verkhovna Rada, Ukraine's parliament, refuses to back the demands of these key donors.
