Tropical Storm Lowell formed in the Pacific Ocean on Thursday afternoon and is projected to strike Hawaii as a hurricane in the coming days.
The National Hurricane Center reported that Lowell developed with sustained winds exceeding 45 mph, located more than 1,500 miles southeast of the Hawaiian islands.
Early computer prediction models indicate the storm will intensify into a hurricane by Sunday while moving directly toward the state. Spaghetti tracking models show multiple potential paths where the storm barrels straight into Hawaii's Big Island and heavily populated areas including Maui, Molokaʻi, Lanaʻi, and Oʻahu.
More than one million people live across the island state, with major population centers concentrated in Honolulu, Waikiki, Kahului, and Kihei.
Third Tropical Cyclone Threat in Three Weeks
Lowell represents the third tropical cyclone to threaten Hawaii within three weeks. It follows a near-miss by Tropical Storm Moke on August 22 and the severe impact of Hurricane Lala on August 15 and 16.
Residents on the Big Island, officially known as Hawaiʻi Island, are still recovering from Hurricane Lala. Hawaii Governor Josh Green confirmed that more than 100 homes were damaged or destroyed in resulting floods and mudslides.
Police in Hawaii reported that Hurricane Lala caused two deaths, involving a woman and a man who were found outdoors on the Big Island. The storm passed with its eye just 30 miles off the coast, leaving behind an estimated $3 billion to $5 billion in destruction.
The rapid succession of threats mirrors weather patterns from a decade ago. The last time multiple storms impacted Hawaii within a two-week span was in 2016, when Tropical Storm Madeline and Hurricane Lester passed over the state.
AccuWeather Season Warnings and Expert Outlook
Meteorologists with AccuWeather have warned that the Pacific hurricane season could be unusually active, raising the risk of multiple direct hits on the Hawaiian islands.
AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva cautioned in May: "Hawaii has gone a long time without a direct hurricane landfall, but that should not lead to complacency."
DaSilva added: "Some islands were hit hard by flash flooding in March. People across Hawaii should prepare for an increased risk of tropical impacts this year."
At the start of the season, AccuWeather forecasters predicted between 17 and 22 named storms across the Pacific from May 15 through November 30. Between nine and 13 of those were projected to reach hurricane strength, with up to eight expected to become major hurricanes of Category 3 or higher.
The region has already recorded 14 named tropical storms or hurricanes across the eastern and central Pacific this season.
Forecasting Models Track Path Toward Big Island
Current computer simulations from the European forecasting model, known as the EPS Ensemble, show Lowell moving west into next week before turning north and spiraling toward the Big Island.
Forecasting data from the National Hurricane Center, which currently extends through Wednesday, September 2, indicates Lowell will remain a hurricane at that time with sustained winds exceeding 75 mph.
Meteorologists note that forecast models can shift dramatically as tropical systems develop and approach land. Predictive certainty weakens the farther into the future a model attempts to project.
Super El Niño Drives Elevated Pacific Storm Activity
Forecasters attribute the intense atmospheric activity around Hawaii to the emergence of a "Super" El Niño in the Pacific Ocean, which has driven sea-surface temperatures significantly higher.
El Niño is a natural climate phenomenon characterized by ocean surface temperatures warming above historical averages. A Super El Niño occurs when those water temperatures rise by more than 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit (2.0 degrees Celsius) above normal.
The phenomenon has altered global weather patterns, creating a storm-friendly environment in the Pacific while suppressing hurricane formation in the Atlantic Ocean.
Warmer Pacific waters supply energy for tropical cyclones to grow larger and maintain strength over long distances. Additionally, reduced vertical wind shear in the Pacific prevents hurricanes from being disrupted by opposing winds at high altitudes.
