Tropical Storm Karina could intensify into a major Category 3 hurricane heading straight for California, according to updated forecasting models from weather officials.
The National Hurricane Center revealed that Karina currently has sustained winds of more than 50 mph and is expected to reach hurricane status as early as Friday night. By Sunday morning, computer models project the giant cyclone will strengthen into a Category 3 hurricane with winds exceeding 111 mph.
New computer spaghetti models, which track all possible paths of tropical storms and hurricanes, show multiple routes taking Karina straight into the California coast. If the storm maintains that path, it could potentially impact millions of Americans.
The National Hurricane Center, a U.S. government agency based in Miami, Florida, monitors tropical weather systems across the Pacific and Atlantic basins. A Category 3 classification on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale designates a major hurricane capable of producing devastating damage and severe storm surges.
Forecasting Models Shift Toward West Coast
Early predictions from the American forecasting model, known as the Global Forecast System or GFS, showed several possibilities for a historic landfall in San Diego or Los Angeles.
The European forecasting model, also known as the EPS Ensemble, was more skeptical of a U.S. landfall on Thursday, predicting that Karina would stay away from the California coast and move out to sea.
However, both major forecasting models were updated on Friday, and both now show potential tracking paths to Southern California and points farther north.
National Weather Service records show that a hurricane has never made landfall in California in recorded history. The last time a tropical storm directly impacted the state was in 1997.
A tropical storm tracking straight from the Pacific Ocean into the California coast has not occurred in nearly a century, since the Long Beach Tropical Storm landed in 1939.
Storm Location and Offshore Hazards
Forecast models can shift dramatically once storms form and approach landfall. The farther into the future a forecast model tries to predict, the weaker the certainty of it being correct gets. Spaghetti models displaying paths in several directions reveal a great amount of uncertainty, whereas tightly clustered models indicate higher confidence among meteorologists.
Tropical Storm Karina is currently less than 1,400 miles south of San Diego and is moving northwest at 13 mph far offshore from the coast of Mexico.
Even though Karina remains far offshore, the National Hurricane Center warned that tropical storm force winds from the massive cyclone already extend more than 200 miles from its center.
Weather officials expect swells along the coast of southwest Mexico and the Baja California Peninsula to start this weekend, leading to life-threatening rip currents for swimmers. Rip currents are strong, narrow channels of water that flow quickly away from the shore, pulling swimmers into deeper water and exhausting them as they fight the current.
Historical Impact of Pacific Cyclones
California has experienced severe weather from passing cyclones in the past. Three years ago, Hurricane Hilary impacted Southern California, but weather officials later determined that the storm was no longer a named cyclone when it made landfall.
The last time the state was struck by an actual tropical storm was in 1997, when a weakening Hurricane Nora crossed from Mexico into the United States while still at tropical storm strength.
Hurricane Nora crossed into the U.S. on September 25, 1997, mainly causing rain, rough surf and slick roads across Southern California. The California Highway Patrol documented three or four traffic deaths due to the weather, and 125,000 power customers in the Los Angeles area lost electricity.
Super El Niño Setting Stage for Historic Weather
In 2026, AccuWeather lead long-range forecaster Paul Pastelok warned that the stage is set for a historic storm to reach California again, whether that is Karina or another storm, thanks to the emergence of the weather phenomenon El Niño.
El Niño is a natural climate phenomenon where the Pacific Ocean becomes noticeably warmer than its historical average. This warming flips global weather patterns, causing storms to become more potent and last longer in the Pacific while weakening in the Atlantic.
AccuWeather meteorologists have predicted that this year's El Niño will likely be the strongest in recorded history, with sea-surface temperatures in the Pacific rising by 4.8 degrees Fahrenheit (2.66 degrees Celsius). That increase qualifies as a Super El Niño, defined by ocean temperatures rising by more than 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit (2.0 degrees Celsius).
Pastelok told the Daily Mail in June: "There could be some insane flooding that could take place, not only just in the summer, but it could even be out of season as well into the wintertime."
Pastelok added: "You gotta watch the combination of the monsoon and marine heatwave. A marine heatwave that's near the Baja, with El Niño combined, you've got three things working to possibly produce some unusual type of wet weather in Southern California, Phoenix, Tucson, in that area there."
