Tropical Storm Bertha erupted along the US Gulf Coast on Monday evening as millions of Americans braced for a direct hit and life-threatening conditions this week. The National Hurricane Center named the disturbance Tropical Depression Two on Monday morning, then declared it had grown into the second named Atlantic storm of the season once wind speeds increased to more than 39mph.
Bertha is currently on a path that will hit New Orleans head-on by Wednesday afternoon. Heavy rain and sustained winds of more than 50mph are expected to impact the entire Gulf region, including the Florida Panhandle, Mississippi, Alabama, Louisiana and Texas.
Dangerous seas and waves up to 16 feet high could threaten boats and beachfront communities this week as Bertha barrels from east to west. AccuWeather meteorologist Tyler Roys said tropical systems can bring dangerous rainfall, flash flooding, and other hazardous impacts regardless of whether they receive an official designation.
The National Weather Service has already issued tropical storm warnings along the entire Florida coast, from Tallahassee to Miami, with officials warning the storm could capsize or damage vessels. Up to eight inches of rain are expected in multiple areas, including Tallahassee and Panama City, and in New Orleans, where nearly one million people live throughout the seven-parish metropolitan area.
Storm strengthening through the week
Meteorologists expect Bertha to continue strengthening throughout Monday as it forms in the extremely warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico. The rapidly forming cyclone had sustained winds of 40mph, just over the threshold to officially be named a tropical storm.
The National Hurricane Center expected stronger thunderstorms to develop and winds to pick up to between 40mph and 75mph by early Tuesday morning, when conditions will likely begin reaching their most dangerous levels. By Tuesday night, the threat to the US is expected to peak, with winds from Bertha reaching 50mph and dangerous waves forming along the Gulf Coast.
NWS officials warned that mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions, telling them to remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, or secure their vessel for severe conditions. Storm models show nearly all tracks for Bertha predict landfall in the New Orleans area by 1pm local time on Wednesday.
The last named storm to make landfall in the US was Tropical Storm Chantal in July 2025. The last named storm to strike Louisiana was Hurricane Francine in 2024.
Heat advisory across the South
At the same time as Bertha gathers strength in the Gulf, millions of Americans from Minnesota to Louisiana have been dealing with skyrocketing temperatures across the Central US. Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana and parts of Texas are also under a heat advisory on Monday, with the heat index expected to rise to 112F in New Orleans.
El Niño and the 2026 hurricane season
Long-range forecasters recently downgraded their predictions for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season because of El Niño, which historically causes fewer major storms to form in the Atlantic Ocean and Gulf of Mexico. On July 7, AccuWeather officially lowered its predictions for hurricane season due to the impact of El Niño, a natural climate pattern in which the central and eastern Pacific Ocean surface temperature becomes significantly warmer than average, flipping weather patterns worldwide.
AccuWeather now believes there will be between eight and 14 named storms in the Atlantic this year, down from its prediction of 11 to 16 in March. However, the weather agency still predicted that four to seven of these storms will reach hurricane strength, and that three to five named storms will make landfall in the US, with Bertha likely being the first this week.
AccuWeather's lead long range forecaster, Paul Pastelok, told the Daily Mail in June that this does not mean Americans should let down their guard in 2026, since a major hurricane can still reach land despite the presence of El Niño. He said it only takes one storm, adding that there is still a lot of warm water and a lot of potential in the Atlantic Basin, and that people should not assume they have nothing to worry about this year.
