Tropical Storm Bertha is strengthening in the Gulf of Mexico and could make a direct hit on New Orleans as it moves toward the US coast this week, forecasters said.
The storm, the second named Atlantic storm of the 2026 hurricane season, developed off the coast of Florida around 7pm ET on Monday. Forecast models show it spiraling toward Louisiana and Texas over the following day.
Tropical storm warnings have been issued along the coasts of Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama. Meteorologists are warning of dangerous flooding, high winds and hazardous surf for millions of people across the Gulf region.
Up to eight inches of rain and sustained winds of 40 to 60mph are expected to hit the entire Gulf region, including the Florida Panhandle and major cities such as Mobile, New Orleans and Houston.
Landfall expected near New Orleans
Forecasters with AccuWeather believe Bertha could make landfall as soon as Wednesday night, likely striking near eastern Orleans Parish. That area includes New Orleans East, the Lower Ninth Ward and neighborhoods closer to Lake Pontchartrain and the eastern stretches of the Mississippi River.
Bertha's exact path remains uncertain. Some potential tracks show the storm staying at sea longer, which would allow it to grow stronger before landfall.
AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said a "hug-the-coast" scenario would keep overall winds weaker, "however, heavy to flooding rainfall would increase along the central Gulf Coast before spreading inland as the storm loses wind intensity."
AccuWeather also said storm surges, where sea levels rise sharply, could reach as high as three feet along a stretch of more than 400 miles from Florida to western Louisiana.
The National Hurricane Center said a Storm Surge Watch means there is "a possibility of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours." Officials said the risk to boaters and coastal residents could be severe this week, with Bertha capable of capsizing and damaging vessels as it strengthens and moves west.
Storm's path remains uncertain
As of 9am ET Tuesday, Bertha had grown to carry sustained winds of 50mph and was located just south of Panama City, Florida.
Spaghetti models, which show the range of possible paths predicted by different weather computer programs, indicate the storm twisting toward the northwest over the next day, moving closer to the Gulf Coast and spinning directly into Louisiana's Black Bay. When the model lines cluster tightly together, forecasters have more confidence in the path.
Meteorologists said the Gulf could be spared a severe impact thanks to extreme wind shear blowing south from the northern United States, which is pushing thunderstorms away from the shore. But those same winds could also push Bertha farther south, giving the storm a chance to strengthen by drawing on the warm waters of the Gulf.
DaSilva said that scenario would likely allow the storm to strengthen much more "because its center would remain over the warm waters of the open Gulf for a longer period." He added that strengthening to "perhaps a high-end tropical storm or hurricane would be possible in this case."
Texas communities on alert after deadly floods
That potential path would likely push Bertha toward the Texas coast, putting communities that recently suffered deadly flash floods at risk again.
AccuWeather Meteorologist Breanna Grill said the Texas Hill Country "may be especially vulnerable to downpours due to saturated ground and infrastructure damaged by the catastrophic flooding last week."
One year ago, the Texas Hill Country was devastated by a Fourth of July flood that killed more than 130 people, including many children at a local summer camp.
The National Weather Service has warned that flash flooding is expected wherever Bertha strikes this week, particularly in urban areas. Flash flooding is sudden, rapid flooding that can occur within minutes to hours during heavy rain, often in low-lying areas, streams or cities where water cannot drain away fast enough. Forecasters said the sudden onset makes it one of the most dangerous types of flooding.
