Telling a spouse and children that you have been dismissed because the company has cut staff in response to collapsing demand is one of the hardest moments a person can face. In that instant, the columnist Tomás D. Guzmán Hernández writes, the whole family's spirits sink and uncertainty replaces calm.
( FUENTE EXTERNA )
Guzmán Hernández, an economist based in Santo Domingo, argues that the world has entered what he calls a fourth wave of unemployment, driven by geopolitical conflicts including the Russia-Ukraine war and tensions involving the United States, Israel, and Iran. The wave is leaving millions of people without the means to support their families, he writes, and is drastically altering the course of their lives.
Three Waves Before This One
The author traces the phenomenon through three earlier crises. The first was the Great Depression of 1929, which he attributes to overproduction, uncontrolled stock market speculation, easy credit, and structural weaknesses in the banking system. The second came between 2007 and 2008 during what became known as the Great Recession, triggered by the collapse of the United States housing bubble and the subsequent sub-prime mortgage crisis. The third began with the COVID-19 pandemic, whose first cases were detected in Wuhan, China, at the end of 2019; the World Health Organization declared the outbreak an international public health emergency on January 30, 2020, and a global pandemic on March 11 of that year.
Today, Guzmán Hernández writes, the shocks on labor markets are without precedent since the aftermath of the two world wars and the economic slowdowns of the 1970s and early 1980s. Beyond wars, he notes that rising prices for oil, fertilizers, food, tourism, and agriculture are also weighing on both developed and emerging economies.
OECD Warning
Stefano Carpeta, who has led the OECD's Directorate for Employment, Labour and Social Affairs since 2013, said structural reforms to reignite global growth are now urgent, given uncertainty from geopolitical tensions, low productivity, and a lack of workforce skills. In a report titled "Foundations for Growth and Competitiveness," published by the OECD on April 9, 2026, the organization set out recommendations for its 48 member countries. The report identified low productivity growth, weak business investment, limited economic dynamism, skills shortages, and aging populations as the main long-term challenges, compounded by short-term uncertainty from international geopolitical tensions.
The social toll of prolonged joblessness, Guzmán Hernández warns, includes rising rates of suicide, crime, assault, depression, mental illness, femicide, divorce, and drug use. University graduates are entering a market that offers poorly paid work or none at all, while temporary workers face high levels of precariousness that destabilize their families emotionally and financially.
A Dominican Dimension
The author notes that while official figures place the Dominican Republic's overall unemployment rate below five percent, youth unemployment is estimated at between twelve and fourteen percent. The state remains the country's principal employer, and the private sector is advancing only gradually. Underemployment and the number of working poor are both rising, he writes, eroding household income and increasing social vulnerability. Agriculture and manufacturing, the latter employing a large share of women, are identified as sectors where a strong wave of layoffs could account for a significant portion of total job losses.
Surviving this fourth wave, Guzmán Hernández concludes, will require effective public policies, productive investment, stronger technical and professional education, and the creation of real opportunities for young people. Without these measures, he argues, the economic and social consequences could deepen further in the years ahead.
