Geophysicist Stefan Burns has warned that California faces a major earthquake following a deadly magnitude 7.4 seismic event in Colombia. Speaking during a YouTube livestream, Burns claimed California is firmly in the crosshairs for a massive earthquake along its most vulnerable geological faults, including the San Andreas.
"California is super overdue," Burns warned during his livestream. "What areas in California are now at greater risk? In general, just all of California but really more Southern California would be at greater risk because of this."
The warning follows a magnitude 7.4 earthquake in San Jose Del Palmar, Colombia, on August 10 that killed at least 132 people. Footage recorded across Colombia showed building facades crumbling and residents huddling in streets unable to stand, while a church spire collapsed into rubble before terrified onlookers.
Burns explained that energy released during the magnitude 7.4 quake does not remain local. Seismic waves and stress changes travel through the Earth and can load geological faults thousands of miles away with added pressure, eventually causing additional quakes in major hotspots like the West Coast and the New Madrid Seismic Zone in the Midwest.
Seismic Stress Transfer and Timeframe
According to Burns, the next six to 12 months will be a critical timeframe for California, as many mega earthquakes throughout recent history have occurred within months of each other. "It's that six [month] to one year time frame that we're worried about and if we get kind of past that then maybe we can start to breathe a bit of a sigh of relief," Burns said.
He noted that recent seismic activity makes it impossible to rule out Northern California. "But because we've been seeing so much activity in Northern California, it's hard to rule out Northern California. So really all of California is problematic right now," Burns added.
Burns previously predicted the August 10 Colombia earthquake on June 24, nearly two months before the disaster occurred. He issued the prediction after magnitude 7.2 and 7.5 earthquakes struck Venezuela that same day, explaining that those seismic events would send out waves of energy capable of rupturing another fault several weeks or months later.
"Anytime I see two earthquakes pop off close together within the same year. They're linked together," Burns said right after the quakes in Venezuela. He emphasized that potential chain reactions traveling between South America and North America have occurred in historical precedent.
Historical Parallel to 1812 Quakes
Between December 1811 and February 1812, a group of three powerful earthquakes over magnitude 7.0 caused damage throughout the Midwest, from Cincinnati to St Louis, with shaking felt as far away as Connecticut and Louisiana. Weeks later, a major disaster struck Caracas, Venezuela, on March 26, 1812, believed to be a magnitude 7.7 quake.
Nine months after the Caracas earthquake, two more major quakes believed to be stronger than magnitude 7.0 struck California. The first erupted near the San Andreas Fault on December 8, 1812, followed by a second earthquake on December 21 in Santa Barbara.
"When you see these sort of trends you have to pay attention and it adds for example forecasting like a 'plus one modifier' of probability I would say you know this is not an exact science there's an art and a science to this," Burns said. Applying that historical pattern to recent quakes in South America, Burns stated the US faces its greatest danger for a magnitude 7.0 or stronger earthquake throughout the rest of 2026 and early 2027.
Updated USGS Hazard Models
Recent figures from the US Geological Survey reveal that 159.2 million people live in areas exposed to very strong shaking under their latest hazard model, up from 111.8 million in the previous version. California remains one of the most notorious earthquake hotspots in the country, but the threat also extends to the New Madrid Seismic Zone and far beyond.
The danger has increased around the New Madrid Seismic Zone, which stretches about 150 miles along the Mississippi River Valley. This area covers parts of northeastern Arkansas, southeastern Missouri, western Tennessee, western Kentucky, and southern Illinois. Heavily traveled bridges also make New York, Atlanta, and St Louis unexpectedly vulnerable to severe seismic activity under the USGS model.
Researchers warned that damaged bridge crossings could cut neighborhoods off from hospitals, delay emergency crews, and paralyze traffic long after shaking stops. The new USGS figures do not mean earthquakes have suddenly become more frequent, but demonstrate that improved scientific models reveal far more people, homes, and vital infrastructure are exposed than previously understood.
A 2025 blog post on the official website of the Geological Society of America warned that a magnitude 7.6 earthquake in the New Madrid Seismic Zone could cause more than $43 billion in damage. Previous studies have estimated the potential death toll from such an event at more than 80,000 people.
In California, recent predictions from the USGS have evaluated a magnitude 7.8 earthquake along the San Andreas Fault originating directly in Los Angeles, a city of 3.8 million people. According to the Great California ShakeOut, this hypothetical Big One would cause roughly 1,800 deaths, 50,000 injuries, and $200 billion in damages.
Pacific Ring of Fire Imbalance
Burns previously told the Daily Mail that the Ring of Fire, a 25,000-mile arc encircling the Pacific Ocean which includes the US West Coast and South America, would soon need to balance itself by having more earthquakes on the US side of the ring. In recent years, multiple megaquakes have occurred on the Asia side of the Pacific Plate, including a magnitude 8.8 disaster in Kamchatka, Russia, on July 29, 2025.
"We've had tons of activity in the Western Pacific, and I do see it moving more towards the East, and I see that really hitting South America and also North America pretty strongly," the scientist predicted in July.
