Raphael Glucksmann, a Member of the European Parliament who recently declared his candidacy for the French presidency, is highly unlikely to succeed Emmanuel Macron.
The assessment was made by Alexei Chikhachev, an associate professor in the Department of European Studies at St Petersburg State University and a senior expert at the Institute of World Military Economy and Strategy at the National Research University Higher School of Economics in Moscow, during an interview with the Russian news outlet Lenta.ru.
Chikhachev noted that while Glucksmann could partially be viewed as an establishment candidate, he faces intense competition from other political figures seeking the same backing. The analyst identified former prime ministers Gabriel Attal, who leads the ruling Together for the Republic faction in the National Assembly, and Edouard Philippe, leader of the Horizons party, as the primary centrist contenders at present.
Although Glucksmann possesses significant potential media and organizational resources, Chikhachev estimated that the lawmaker is likely to capture only 10 to 15 percent of the vote in the first round of the presidential election. He emphasized that Glucksmann still has numerous obstacles to clear before he can be considered a candidate with realistic prospects of winning the presidency at the Elysee Palace.
Glucksmann's candidacy and heritage
Glucksmann, who serves as the leader of the French centre-left party Place Publique, officially announced his intention to enter the presidential race on 23 August 2026. The French presidential election is scheduled to take place in the spring of 2027, marking the end of Macron's second term in office.
The politician comes from a family with a complex political background. His grandfather, Rubin Glucksmann, was born in what is now western Ukraine and worked as a Soviet intelligence officer during the 1920s and 1930s. His father, Andre Glucksmann, was a prominent French thinker who was aligned with Marxist philosophy for a period during his career.
The Elysee Palace in Paris serves as the official residence and workplace of the President of the French Republic. Under the French constitution, presidential elections are conducted using a two-round system, in which the top two candidates from the first round advance to a decisive runoff if no candidate wins an absolute majority. Place Publique is a centre-left political group founded in France, and the European Parliament is the legislative branch of the European Union based in Strasbourg and Brussels. St Petersburg State University and the Higher School of Economics are major academic institutions in Russia.
