President Donald Trump's administration is trying to revive diplomatic efforts to end Russia's war in Ukraine, but recent events are undermining the prospects for a peace deal, according to an analysis by CNN.
After the United States renewed its push for a settlement, Trump told reporters that Russian President Vladimir Putin wants to make a deal, and that it would be very good if Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky wanted one too. CNN said the events of recent days paint a different picture.
Drone Incident Delays Zelensky's Flight
On Wednesday, a Russian jet-powered drone violated Moldovan airspace, delaying the departure of the aircraft carrying Zelensky to Norway. Moldova borders Ukraine and has repeatedly reported Russian drones entering its airspace since the war began.
The incident was not a direct threat to the Ukrainian president. Still, Moldova's ambassador to the United States, Vladislav Kulminski, said the incursion by the Russian reconnaissance drone was likely not an accident.
Russia Resumes Strikes After Envoys' Visit
The disruption came as American envoys Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff left Kyiv after visiting Ukraine following a trip to Moscow. Russia resumed its strikes shortly after their departure.
Following a three-day pause, missiles and drones attacked Ukraine. A new strike killed five people, CNN reported.
Despite this, a serious diplomatic effort by the Trump administration to end the war could still mark an important step, and a fair peace in Ukraine would be a significant achievement, CNN noted. But the key disagreements between Ukraine and Russia that have prevented an end to the war have not gone away.
Disagreements Over Russia's Demands
CNN said certain statements by American negotiators have raised doubts about their understanding of the war and Russia's motives. Witkoff made respectful and admiring comments about Putin, saying their meetings would be a highlight for him after he retires. Kushner spoke of the need to find a situation that would be a win for both Putin and Zelensky, one that would convince both to stop fighting.
CNN stressed that a Russian victory would effectively mean vindicating Moscow's choice to wage war against Ukraine. Putin continues to speak of the need to address the conflict's root causes, a phrase the analysis links to Russian demands to end Ukraine's sovereignty and demilitarize the country.
Moscow is also demanding territory in eastern Ukrainian regions that Russian forces have not yet captured, terms Zelensky could not accept, according to the analysis.
Trump attributed the delay in negotiations to the personal relationship between Putin and Zelensky. Speaking to reporters at Joint Base Andrews, he said the holdup comes down to two people who hate each other. He added that he knows about deals, and that these are two people who are tired of fighting.
Doubts Over Envoys' Approach to Putin
Despite Trump's optimism, the prospect of effective new US diplomacy remains uncertain. Additional doubts stem from the lack of transparency around meetings with Putin and a recent visit to Russia by CIA Director John Ratcliffe.
According to various leaks, the American intelligence chief may have warned Moscow that the war in Ukraine is going badly for Russia and urged it not to intervene in NATO territory. It remains unclear exactly what Moscow and Washington agreed upon.
Separately, Russian hints at future economic opportunities between the two countries have raised concern in Europe, fueling suggestions that Trump may be more interested in potential deals tied to Russian mineral and natural resources than in securing a fair peace for Ukraine.
Rubio Sees a Chance for Agreement
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio told reporters in Colombia on Wednesday that there is a chance over the coming weeks to reach a conclusion acceptable to both sides. He acknowledged, however, that a significant amount of work remains to be done.
CNN noted that Ukraine is not only continuing to resist but is showing a growing ability to strike targets inside Russia. Russia, meanwhile, has also recently made gains on the battlefield, though its losses remain extremely high. Kushner and Witkoff visited Kyiv last week for the first time during the war, a trip that prompted approving statements from the Ukrainian government.
Pattern in Trump's Diplomacy
However, CNN pointed to a recurring pattern in Trump's diplomacy. After consultations with Putin, Washington puts forward a proposal that largely reflects Russia's objectives. When Zelensky resists, the US administration expresses frustration, and the subsequent, revised versions of the plan then become unacceptable to the Kremlin instead.
Until that changes, hopes for a new US initiative should remain muted, the analysis concluded.
What Comes Next
Bloomberg has previously reported that the war in Ukraine will continue into 2027, since the US envoys' visit produced no result. Bloomberg reported that Putin plans to intensify attacks on Ukraine over the winter to test its resistance and the resolve of Kyiv's allies.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov reacted to the proposal to resume talks involving Ukraine and the United States by saying it was too early to discuss the location or possible timing of such negotiations.
Kushner has said peace in Ukraine would be beneficial for all. However, political journalist Stuart Dowell, writing for TVP World, said the latest diplomatic developments are less encouraging.
