Heatwaves threaten to push up food costs for pubs and restaurants over the rest of the year as extreme weather creates widespread uncertainty over vegetable supplies.
Hot weather is disrupting the future availability and wholesale pricing of staple crops including broccoli, carrots and potatoes, according to researchers behind the latest Foodservice Price Index from NIQ and Prestige Purchasing.
While the overall pace of price increases slowed significantly in July, experts warn that the hospitality sector faces fresh inflationary pressures heading into autumn and winter.
Price inflation slows but supply risks remain
Data from the index shows that food price hikes eased in July, rising by 0.2 per cent month-on-month. That represents a sharp drop from June, when food prices jumped by 1.8 per cent in a single month.
Despite the temporary reprieve in July, market analysts warn that supply chain volatility is far from over. Experts said the food and hospitality industry will be tracking supply issues over the next few months as "buyers face a very uncertain autumn and winter".
Prolonged heatwaves and dry weather create difficult growing conditions for key agricultural crops. Excessive heat stresses plants, lowers crop yields and alters harvesting timelines for root vegetables such as carrots and potatoes, as well as brassicas like broccoli.
Understanding the Foodservice Price Index
The Foodservice Price Index is a benchmark tracking wholesale food and drink price inflation across the commercial catering, restaurant and pub sectors. It is produced jointly by consumer intelligence company NIQ and procurement consultancy Prestige Purchasing.
NIQ provides market measurement and consumer data, while Prestige Purchasing specializes in supply chain management and procurement services for hospitality businesses. Their monthly tracking gives commercial operators visibility over wholesale commodity price shifts.
Pubs and dining establishments depend on stable wholesale supply chains to manage operating margins. When hot weather reduces vegetable harvests, hospitality buyers face rising procurement expenses, threatening higher menu prices for consumers over the remainder of the year.
