Two opinion polls conducted immediately after the Thessaloniki International Fair have found Greece's ruling New Democracy party holding a wide lead over its rivals, even as a majority of voters say they doubt the economic measures announced by Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis will make a difference to their daily lives.
Officials at the Maximos Mansion, the seat of the Greek prime minister's office in Athens, described their reading of the findings as cautious optimism mixed with a clear-eyed recognition of the social pressures many households are facing.
What the GPO poll found
A survey by pollster GPO for the television channel Star put New Democracy on 30.6% in voting intention, giving it a lead of 14.6 percentage points over the second-placed party, ELAS, which stood at 16%. The Panhellenic Socialist Movement, PASOK, came third with 12.8%.
On the economic measures Mitsotakis announced at the fair, 36.2% of respondents in the GPO poll said they viewed them positively or somewhat positively, while 59.4%, or almost six in ten, said their view was negative or somewhat negative.
What the Prorata poll found
A separate poll by Prorata for the newspaper Efimerida ton Syntakton put New Democracy lower, at 25.5%, with ELAS on 16.5%, narrowing the gap between the two parties to 9 percentage points. In that survey, 82% of respondents said they did not expect any real improvement in their day-to-day lives as a result of the government's announcements in Thessaloniki.
The Thessaloniki International Fair is an annual trade exhibition that has become the traditional platform for Greek prime ministers to set out economic policy for the year ahead, with the speech closely watched for tax, wage and welfare announcements.
Government's reading of the results
Government sources said the main takeaway for them was that New Democracy had retained its political dominance. The fact that the party is again polling above the psychological threshold of 30% in the GPO survey, and maintains strong single- or double-digit leads over the opposition, was interpreted within government circles as approval for the political stability that Mitsotakis has repeatedly described as essential.
Government officials also noted with satisfaction that the main opposition has been unable to capitalise on public discontent despite the wear and tear of being in power, remaining stuck at low percentages.
Why officials expected skepticism
Aides to the prime minister said they were not surprised by the high levels of skepticism recorded in both polls. They pointed to two reasons: it is too early for citizens to feel the effect of the measures, most of which have not yet been implemented, and Mitsotakis deliberately chose a path of fiscal responsibility rather than blanket handouts, a choice that by definition does not generate enthusiasm among voters squeezed by the cost of living.
They added that the fair was never intended to produce a short-lived communications boost, but to lay the groundwork for the second half of the government's term through realistic interventions. The 36.2% who viewed the measures positively in the GPO poll was described as a solid starting point.
What comes next
Government officials expect public opinion to become more favourable once measures such as cuts to social security contributions and support for specific social groups are put into practice and begin to affect household budgets. Within the prime minister's office, the results of the two polls are being treated as a clear mandate to speed up delivery of the government's programme.
