Greece will hand over the position of highest public debt ratio in Europe to Italy by the end of 2026, according to official projections. The latest estimate from the Public Debt Management Agency lowers Greek public debt to near 137 percent of Gross Domestic Product, down from a previous forecast of 138.2 percent, while Italy moves toward 138.6 percent. Sixteen years after requesting an international financial bailout, Greece is close to posting a lower debt ratio than the Eurozone's third-largest economy.
The shift highlights a major trajectory across 46 years of Greek macroeconomic history. In 1980, Greek public debt stood at 24 percent of GDP, while Italian debt was near 58 percent. After a prolonged sovereign debt crisis pushed Greek public debt above 210 percent of GDP in 2020, Greece has reduced its ratio by over 70 percentage points in six years.
Greece entered international memorandum bailout agreements in 2010, followed by a private sector debt restructuring known as the PSI in 2012. The country underwent three rescue programs, deep recession, high unemployment, and capital controls that turned it into an international synonym for financial crisis.
Debt Reduction and Early Repayments
The achievement followed years of societal sacrifice involving lost income, property, and financial security. Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis described the debt reduction as a national success, noting that lower debt protects future generations, strengthens national credibility, and reduces future borrowing costs. The government plans to reduce the public debt ratio below 110 percent of GDP by 2031.
To meet its targets, Greece is planning approximately 13 billion euros in early debt repayments during 2026. The planned prepayments include 2.5 billion euros in European Financial Stability Facility loans, a 2.2 billion euro bond maturing in 2027, and a 1.2 billion euro reduction in its treasury bills stockpile by the end of the year. These operations follow an early repayment of 6.9 billion euros completed in June.
Greece also plans to conclude 2026 with cash reserves exceeding 30 billion euros. Fiscal results for the January to July period showed a primary surplus of 5.725 billion euros, exceeding the official target of 4.417 billion euros. Net tax revenues reached 42.475 billion euros, standing 1.112 billion euros above target.
The fiscal performance has impacted sovereign bond markets, where ten-year Greek government bond yields have dropped below corresponding yields for Italy and France. The European Financial Stability Facility, established during the Eurozone debt crisis to provide financial assistance to member states, is among the lenders receiving early payments as Greece clears future obligations early.
Stock Market Developed Status Return
Alongside government debt reduction, Euronext Athens is preparing to return to developed market status, closing a period of emerging market classification that began in 2013. Index providers FTSE Russell and STOXX have decided to upgrade the Greek capital market to Developed Market status effective September 21, 2026, while S&P Dow Jones has also recognized Greece as a developed market. MSCI will complete its transition in May 2027.
According to MSCI data, no market in the history of its index classifications has previously made this journey. Greece became the first developed market to be downgraded to emerging market status in 2013, and its planned reinstatement makes it the first to return to developed status.
The integration of the Athens Stock Exchange into Euronext connects Greek equities to a larger European liquidity pool and broadens the range of institutional investment portfolios eligible to hold Greek assets. Euronext Athens is scheduled to complete its full technological transition to the Optiq trading platform in June 2027.
Technical Analysis and Market Projections
Market data shows the General Index of Euronext Athens standing at 2,617 points. Surpassing 2,407 points puts the 2,930 points region in focus, opening territory unfamiliar to the current generation of market participants.
Apostolos Manthos, head of technical analysis and investment strategy writing in Kefalaio newspaper, identified a major chart projection zone for 2027 between 3,400 and 3,550 points. This range represents a potential rise of up to about 35 percent from 2,617 points. Manthos noted that while chart projections are not market guarantees, technical indicators are aligning with the country's macroeconomic direction for the first time in years.
The transition marks a sixteen-year path since April 2010, when the Greek government announced its financial rescue request from the island of Kastellorizo. Sixteen years after entering bailout programs, Greece is expecting credit upgrades, prepaying debt billions early, and moving below Italy in European debt rankings.
