United Nations data shows the global population of people aged 65 and older surpassed children under five in 2018 for the first time. The demographic crossover occurred quietly without formal announcement, ending a pattern that had persisted throughout all of written human history.
People aged 65 and older represent the fastest-growing age group in the world. Their share of the global population expanded from 5.5 per cent in 1974 to 10.3 per cent in 2024, reaching approximately 800 million people. That total exceeds the entire combined population of Latin America and the Caribbean.
The United Nations, an international organization established in 1945, tracks global demographic changes through its Department of Economic and Social Affairs. Reporting on the findings, science publication Space Daily noted that the figures represent broader numerical reflections rather than policy instructions for specific governments or families, adding that global patterns reveal little to individual citizens about their personal lives.
Trends driving global demographic shifts
The historical milestone resulted from two long-term demographic shifts converging at the same moment. Global life expectancy for newborns increased from 64.0 years in 1990 to 73.3 years in 2024.
At the same time, birth rates experienced a steep global decline. The worldwide average number of births per woman dropped from 3.31 in 1990 to 2.25 in 2024, down from a rate close to four births per woman in the 1960s.
The United Nations stated that practically every country is observing an increase in the proportion of elderly residents due to extended lifespans and falling birth rates, although the pace varies considerably by location. In a 2024 publication, Li Junhua, the UN Under-Secretary-General for Economic and Social Affairs, stated that the demographic landscape had changed significantly in recent years.
Li Junhua added that birth rates in several countries had dropped lower than previously anticipated. He also noted that some high-fertility regions were undergoing faster fertility declines than demographers had expected.
United Nations future projections and regional impact
Demographic models from the United Nations project that the proportion of people aged 65 and older will roughly double again to reach 20.7 per cent by 2074. By the late 2070s, the global population of over-65s is expected to reach 2.2 billion, outnumbering children under 18 years of age.
The United Nations described the broader structural movement toward population aging as largely irreversible. The demographic shift is already visible in several sovereign nations and territories.
Monaco holds the highest proportion of elderly residents globally, with 36 per cent of its population aged 65 and older. Japan holds the highest share among all other nations at 29 per cent. In these societies, daily life quietly reorders around the age balance, affecting pension contribution systems, hospital staffing levels, and municipal decisions on whether to build schools or care homes for the elderly.
Economic impact and workforce automation
Economists and market analysts remain divided on the long-term economic consequences of a shrinking workforce relative to retirees. Torsten Slok, an economist at German financial institution Deutsche Bank, stated that the key question for equity, interest rate, and credit investors is whether the global economy can generate sufficient productivity growth to offset these demographic trends.
Other researchers argue that aging demographics do not necessarily impair economic performance. A study by economists Daron Acemoglu and Pascual Restrepo found no negative relationship between population aging and economic growth in historical data, noting a slightly positive correlation instead.
Acemoglu and Restrepo suggested that countries adapt to labor shortages by adopting machinery and industrial automation at a faster pace, though economists continue to debate the extent of this effect. Data confirms that a historical pattern has ended, but statistics cannot determine whether an aging world will become poorer or simply operate differently.
Ukrainian news agency UNIAN, based in Kyiv, previously reported that the Earth had begun warming at record rates.
