The European Commission presented a new enlargement strategy on 6 October to prepare the European Union for admitting new member states. The 16-page document outlines major changes to decision-making rules, budget allocations, agricultural policy, and membership safeguards to enable future expansion while protecting the bloc from internal paralysis.
Brussels officials have insisted for years that the bloc itself must reform before admitting candidates such as Ukraine, Moldova, and countries in the Western Balkans. The new proposals directly address fears among existing member states about integrating poorer candidate nations and preventing political deadlocks. Diplomats have noted the need to avoid situations similar to Hungary, where Prime Minister Viktor Orban has clashed with Brussels over rule-of-law issues during his 16 years in power while repeatedly using veto powers.
Faster cluster opening by majority vote
European Enlargement Commissioner Marta Kos highlighted Ukraine's progress when presenting the strategy in Brussels. She stated that for the first time in enlargement history, negotiations were being conducted with a country that was at war while fulfilling accession requirements.
To speed up the accession process, the European Commission proposed opening negotiation clusters by qualified majority vote rather than requiring unanimous agreement. Under the proposal, a qualified majority would require the approval of 55 percent of member states representing at least 65 percent of the total EU population.
Kos said that decision-making could be streamlined by reducing the number of areas where a single country could block choices supported by all others. She specifically cited sanctions, anti-tax fraud measures, and intermediate accession steps between opening and concluding negotiations.
The proposed change would be significant for Ukraine, whose negotiation clusters have been blocked by Hungary. A senior European Commission official speaking anonymously explained that while EU treaties mandate unanimity to formally finalize accession, they do not require unanimous consent for intermediate steps like opening clusters. However, changing the voting rules themselves requires unanimous agreement among existing members, which smaller countries have historically opposed to preserve their influence.
15-year restriction on neighbor vetoes
Under the new strategy, incoming member states would be required to sign a voluntary commitment binding them for 15 years not to block neighboring candidate nations from joining the bloc over bilateral disputes. The rule aims to prevent new members from using accession votes as leverage for bilateral concessions.
The proposal addresses a long-standing pattern in EU expansion. Slovenia previously blocked Croatia's accession talks for nearly a year over land and maritime border disputes, while Croatia is currently delaying Montenegro's progress by blocking several key negotiation chapters. Meanwhile, Hungary currently blocks Ukraine's negotiation framework while demanding reforms regarding national minority education rights.
Extended probation and voting suspension
The draft strategy includes legal safeguards creating a phased probationary period for new members lasting between 10 and 15 years, extended from the standard three years. The safeguards focus on the economy, internal market, and internal affairs, allowing the EU to suspend participation in specific sectors if political regression occurs.
The duration of these safeguards was the only section retained in brackets until the final stages of drafting due to internal disagreement within the European Commission. The strategy also introduces a temporary institutional safeguard clause that could suspend a new member state's voting rights in the Council of the European Union in the event of a serious breach of core EU values.
Under the proposal, suspending a new member's voting rights would require only a simple qualified majority. This contrasts with Article 7 of the EU Treaty, the bloc's primary disciplinary mechanism, which requires consensus and allowed Hungary and Poland to shield each other from sanctions. However, the new simplified suspension mechanism would apply exclusively to new member states.
Kos rejected suggestions that the rules would create a two-tier membership. She emphasized that all member states would hold equal rights and described the safeguards as an insurance policy that would trigger only in response to severe violations of democracy, the rule of law, fundamental rights, or sincere cooperation.
Permanent limits for Ukrainian agriculture
The most restrictive measures in the strategy apply to Ukraine's agricultural sector. Citing the scale, structure, and high productivity of Ukrainian farming, the Commission recommended substantially limiting financial support and market access for sensitive commodities such as wheat and grain.
Commission officials explained that Ukrainian agriculture operates with lower production costs and higher efficiency than European farming, removing the economic rationale for providing subsidies on the scale received by current EU farmers. Officials also noted that redirecting Ukrainian grain previously exported to North Africa and the Middle East into the EU market could disrupt European agriculture and risk food insecurity in North Africa.
The proposed restrictions target primary commodities rather than processed foods or fruit products. Although Kos affirmed that Ukraine would eventually join the Common Agricultural Policy under negotiated terms, a senior European Commission official told Radio Free Europe that the agricultural limits were proposed as permanent conditions rather than temporary transitional measures.
Associated membership proposal and EU costs
The strategy also reflects proposals put forward by German Chancellor Friedrich Merz in May, who suggested offering Ukraine associated membership prior to full entry. Merz proposed allowing candidate nations to attend summits, maintain representation in institutions, and gain gradual integration benefits without amending EU treaties. France and Germany later submitted a joint proposal for gradual integration offering early access to the internal market and observer status in EU meetings without decision-making power.
The Commission stated that it does not plan to create a formal associated member status or rewrite accession methodology. However, officials noted that existing rules allow the European Parliament to invite candidate nations to appoint non-voting observers and permit structured political participation in Commission activities.
Kos stressed that gradual integration was designed as an accelerator for expansion rather than a replacement for full membership. Addressing financial concerns, the Commission noted that admitting Montenegro costs each EU citizen about one euro per year, while the final cost for Ukraine cannot be determined while war continues. However, a senior official noted that the net additional cost for Ukraine could be reduced, as the draft seven-year EU budget already reserves up to 100 billion euros for Ukrainian reconstruction and agricultural limits would constrain EU spending.
Timetable and upcoming Brussels summit
The strategy outlines target timelines for four leading candidates. Montenegro aims to complete negotiations by the end of the year and join the EU by 2028. Albania targets completing negotiations by 2027, while Moldova aims for entry in the first half of 2028. Ukraine maintains an ambitious timetable, though Commission officials declined to state an estimated entry date.
Leaders of all 27 EU member states will hold their first formal discussion on the Commission's expansion strategy at a summit in Brussels on 15 and 16 October 2026. The European Commission is scheduled to present detailed accession roadmaps for Montenegro, Albania, Moldova, and Ukraine on 28 October 2026.
