Australia has been identified as the safest country in the world to survive a global apocalypse, according to a study by Dr Florian Ulrich Jehn.
Researchers evaluated hundreds of studies examining global catastrophes, including asteroid strikes, volcanic eruptions, nuclear Armageddon and biological warfare. Island geography, economic wealth, democratic governance and strong industrial capacity were found to offer the highest chance of national survival during an end-of-days scenario.
Dr Jehn, lead author of the study from the University of Hagen, warned that even the most prepared nations remain vulnerable to worldwide collapse. "Australia comes out best, but even Australia has likely many traded goods it would still need to rely on," Dr Jehn told the Daily Mail.
In the overall assessment published in the scientific journal Global Challenges, Australia ranked first among the most resilient nations on Earth. "Australia produces a lot of food, it is far away from conflict zones, it is surrounded by a vast ocean that buffers the temperature, still has mines, industry and manufacturing, lots of room to re-use, and also good governance and relatively low inequality," Dr Jehn added.
The University of Hagen is a public research university located in Hagen, North Rhine-Westphalia, Germany. Global Challenges is an open-access peer-reviewed scientific journal that publishes research on sustainability, environmental hazards, global technology systems and disaster risk mitigation.
Global Catastrophe Categories
The researchers categorized existential threats into three main types of global calamity. The first category consists of Abrupt Sunlight Reduction Scenarios (ASRS), in which catastrophic events like volcanic eruptions, nuclear winter or asteroid impacts suddenly block out the sun with vast clouds of atmospheric dust.
The second category involves Global Catastrophic Infrastructure Loss (GCIL) events. These cause severe, widespread disruptions to electrical power grids, transport networks and global food production systems. Such infrastructure collapses could stem from powerful geomagnetic storms caused by solar flares, high-altitude electromagnetic pulses from nuclear weapons, or massive cyberattacks.
The third threat category comprises Global Catastrophic Biological Risks (GCBRs). These hazards involve natural or man-made biological agents that lead to mass casualties and severe societal disruption on a continental or global scale.
Disaster Probabilities and Country Vulnerabilities
Dr Jehn stated that while human-dependent risks are difficult to forecast, the probability of major natural disasters is well established by scientific data. "Volcanic eruptions of the size discussed have a one in six chance of happening this century, and estimates for geomagnetic storms in the relevant size are around one to 12 per cent per decade," Dr Jehn said.
The study identified five countries as the most resilient against global catastrophes: Australia, New Zealand, Japan, Switzerland and Argentina. Each country possesses distinct advantages and specific vulnerabilities depending on the nature of the catastrophe.
Australia benefits significantly from being an island nation, allowing it to close its borders and isolate against global pandemic threats. However, this geographical isolation also increases the country's vulnerability to global supply chain disruptions and critical fuel shortages. Despite these vulnerabilities, Australia achieved the highest rating overall for withstanding the widest range of disasters.
Other resilient nations face severe geographic risks. New Zealand, Japan and Argentina feature long coastlines exposed to destructive tsunamis caused by asteroid impacts. New Zealand, Japan and Argentina are also located dangerously close to active volcanic zones in Southeast Asia and South America. Switzerland is the only nation among the top five that avoids these tsunami coastline exposures and regional volcanic risks.
United Kingdom Apocalypse Risk Assessment
In contrast to Australia and the other top-ranked nations, the United Kingdom lacks key structural advantages necessary for long-term survival. "Overall, the UK is likely not very resilient to many GCRs," Dr Jehn said. "It is relatively far north, which means in abrupt sunlight reduction scenarios it will see a considerable drop in temperature. Further, it is part of NATO and thus a likely target during nuclear war. The UK is also in a high-risk zone of geomagnetic storms."
The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) is an intergovernmental military alliance between North American and European countries established in 1949. NATO membership includes shared defense obligations, making member nations primary targets during nuclear conflicts.
Despite these critical vulnerabilities, Dr Jehn noted that Britain maintains one of the world's better National Risk Registers and has at least started to think about strategies to improve national resilience.
Historical Doomsday Clock Tracking
Global catastrophe levels are monitored symbolically by the Doomsday Clock, maintained by the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. The Bulletin is an independent non-profit organization founded by scientists who worked on the Manhattan Project, the US initiative that developed the first nuclear weapons during World War II.
Established in 1947, the Doomsday Clock tracks humanity's proximity to self-destruction caused by nuclear war, climate change, biotechnology and artificial intelligence. The closer the clock hand moves to midnight, the closer human civilization comes to total annihilation.
The Doomsday Clock has recorded the following time settings over its 75-year history:
- 1947-48: 7 minutes to midnight
- 1949-52: 3 minutes to midnight
- 1953-59: 2 minutes to midnight
- 1960-62: 7 minutes to midnight
- 1963-67: 12 minutes to midnight
- 1968: 7 minutes to midnight
- 1969-71: 10 minutes to midnight
- 1972-73: 12 minutes to midnight
- 1974-79: 9 minutes to midnight
- 1980: 7 minutes to midnight
- 1981-83: 4 minutes to midnight
- 1984-87: 3 minutes to midnight
- 1988-89: 6 minutes to midnight
- 1990: 10 minutes to midnight
- 1991-94: 17 minutes to midnight
- 1995-97: 14 minutes to midnight
- 1998-2001: 9 minutes to midnight
- 2002-06: 7 minutes to midnight
- 2007-09: 5 minutes to midnight
- 2010-11: 6 minutes to midnight
- 2012-14: 5 minutes to midnight
- 2015-16: 3 minutes to midnight
- 2017: 2.5 minutes to midnight
- 2018-19: 2 minutes to midnight
- 2020-22: 100 seconds to midnight
- 2023: 90 seconds to midnight
- 2024: 90 seconds to midnight
- 2025: 89 seconds to midnight
