Former Spanish ambassador Inocencio Arias warned on the TRECE programme El Cascabel that a re-election victory for Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez would be especially damaging for the North African cities of Ceuta and Melilla, saying that while a Sánchez win would be bad for Spain, it would be terrible for the two enclaves.
Speaking alongside host José Luis Pérez, Arias said a recent survey by Spain's Centro de Investigaciones Sociológicas (CIS) asking about the Spanishness of Ceuta and Melilla amounted to a trial balloon ahead of a possible negotiation over co-sovereignty, an idea he said had already crossed Sánchez's mind.
Arias said Sánchez's government was conditioned by authorities in Rabat. He claimed Sánchez was being blackmailed by Morocco, directly or indirectly, pointing to episodes of migratory pressure on Spain's borders and raising the possibility that compromising recordings existed on Sánchez's phone that could be used to force him into concessions for fear of losing votes.
Ceuta and Melilla are Spanish autonomous cities on Morocco's northern coast, and their sovereignty has long been disputed by Rabat even though Spain has governed them for centuries. Sánchez, leader of the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party, has headed Spain's government since 2018. CIS is Spain's state-funded polling body, whose president is appointed by the government.
Comparison to Soviet-era satellite states
Arias compared the Spanish government's posture to that of former satellite leaders under the Soviet Union, saying that on strategic matters such as Western Sahara, a royal visit, and the defence of Morocco in the European Parliament, Sánchez acted according to Moroccan preferences.
Criticism of Tezanos and migration policy
The diplomat also criticised CIS president José Félix Tezanos, describing him as a lackey of Sánchez's for producing polling that Arias said reflected a supposed drop in public concern about immigration. Arias said Sánchez and his government frequently acted as Morocco's fifth column, exonerating the country following incidents he said violated Spain's national sovereignty.
Arias said Spain had given up its hybrid-warfare mechanisms against the European Union by publicly declaring that Morocco cooperated with Spain in an exemplary manner. He said this stance disarmed Spain's diplomatic defence capacity and left the armed forces unprotected on national territory.
The future of Ceuta and Melilla
Addressing remarks by former defence minister Federico Trillo about possible prior contacts on the issue, Arias said Morocco had raised the matter and Sánchez had not ruled it out, even though the two sides had not formally sat down to negotiate. He said Ceuta and Melilla were Spanish cities just as Murcia or Almería were, while admitting concern about their political future.
Arias said a hypothetical renewal of a governing coalition led by Sánchez would represent a critical scenario for the two autonomous cities. He said that for Spain it would be bad, but for Ceuta and Melilla it would be terrible, adding that in such circumstances he could not recommend residents hold on to their properties or businesses.
He cited previous instances in which the government acted against majority public opinion, including the amnesty law, which he said 65% of the population rejected, and the ERE case, a long-running corruption scandal involving Andalusian regional employment funds. He said more than 70% of Spaniards and 99% of Ceuta residents opposed any concession over the cities, against 14% who favoured dialogue, and that the government would nonetheless seek formulas such as indemnities of 150,000 euros to relocate residents to mainland Spain.
