Ukraine's hryvnia could weaken to 46 per dollar in August under a base case scenario, financial analyst Andriy Shevchyshyn said.
Shevchyshyn said August has historically been unfavorable for the national currency. Over the past 26 years, the hryvnia weakened against the dollar in 15 of those Augusts, by an average of 1.15 percent.
Port Blockade And Import Pressure
Shevchyshyn said the full effect of a port blockade would add further pressure on the currency market. He said reduced foreign currency earnings from exports could cut currency supply by 25 million dollars a day, or 50 to 75 million dollars a day in a worse scenario. He also pointed to rising gas and goods imports ahead of autumn and increased foreign currency accumulation by the public after the holiday season as risk factors.
Shevchyshyn said preparations for winter, devaluation expectations and accumulation driven by possible risk of forced future relocation could all play a role, adding that he expects a noticeable rise in cash demand as early as the second half of August. He also said delays in international financing were possible if parliament fails to pass legislation required by the International Monetary Fund.
Base, Negative And Optimistic Scenarios
Shevchyshyn said the recent increase in the National Bank of Ukraine's key rate to 15.5 percent, sufficient international reserves and continued external financial aid could help limit the hryvnia's decline.
He put the probability of the base scenario at 70 percent, under which the dollar would trade between 45 and 46 hryvnia on the interbank market, with a cash rate of 45.20 to 46 hryvnia. He said this scenario matches economic logic, seasonal patterns and the IMF's position on flexibility.
Shevchyshyn assigned a 20 percent probability to a negative scenario, in which the rate could rise to between 46 and 46.5 hryvnia if the port blockade drags on and cooperation with the IMF becomes more difficult. He said this scenario becomes more likely if the Rada fails to pass key legislation after August 18.
In the least likely, optimistic scenario, Shevchyshyn expects the dollar to trade between 44.75 and 45.25 hryvnia and the euro between 52 and 52.50, contingent on de-escalation around Iran, oil prices falling below 80 dollars, and successful rerouting of exports through land routes and European ports or agreements on grain corridors.
Shevchyshyn said the devaluation trend remains in place, forecasting a dollar rate of 45.5 to 46.7 hryvnia by the end of 2026. He said the central bank would likely hold the rate steady during the first week of August while monitoring developments.
Current Exchange Rates
Ukrainian exchange offices were quoting an average dollar rate of 44.85 hryvnia, with a sell rate of 44.73 hryvnia. The cash euro rate stood at 51.65 hryvnia, with a sell rate of 51.41 hryvnia.
Serhiy Mamedov, chairman of the board of Globus Bank, said the dollar rate in August would most likely stay between 44.7 and 45.7 hryvnia, with the euro trading between 51 and 52.50 hryvnia. He said no sharp or uncontrolled rate swings are expected under the base scenario.
