The far right Alternative for Germany party could take control of the state government in Saxony-Anhalt following the September 6 regional election, threatening to break the long standing political firewall against extremism in the country. Leaders of the party view the relatively small state as the first step toward a radically different Germany.
Polling places the Alternative for Germany near 42 percent in the state of 1.7 million voters, giving it a commanding lead over the governing Christian Democrats in a region where the margins are small. If smaller parties fail to secure the 5 percent of votes required to enter the legislature, the far right could win more than half the available seats and govern alone.
The prospect of an outright victory has led the regional government to expect riots. Tamara Zieschang, the interior minister for Saxony-Anhalt, said nobody knew what would actually happen when the polls closed, adding that the state was prepared for all possible scenarios. The regional government has requested police reinforcements from other parts of Germany for election day.
Political firewall under pressure
For years, mainstream German political parties have maintained a strict consensus not to form coalitions with the Alternative for Germany, keeping the party out of power. Because the complex German electoral system rarely delivers a single party majority, this strategy has successfully blocked the far right from entering government.
The firewall held in the neighbouring state of Thuringia, where the Alternative for Germany placed first in 2024 but was relegated to the opposition when three smaller parties formed an unwieldy coalition designed solely to block them.
A similar strategy is unlikely to work in Saxony-Anhalt. The gap in support between the far right and the rest of the field means the center right Christian Democrats would need to ally with almost every other party to form a majority. Such a deal would have to include the radical left party Die Linke, a step many conservative lawmakers would be unwilling to take.
Routes to power
There are rumors that some Christian Democrat lawmakers might defect to the Alternative for Germany or vote to install its candidate as state premier. The small BSW party, which combines left wing economics with conservative social policies, has also indicated it might support a far right winner, offering another route around the political firewall.
The Alternative for Germany is also gaining traction with business leaders. The party has generally maintained a neoliberal economic policy, and recent polling indicates voters now view it as equally competent on the economy as the traditionally business friendly Christian Democrats. While few top executives openly express their approval, some privately appreciate the promise of drastic change. This dynamic led one historian to compare the situation to the way big business helped the Nazis rise to power.
Some leaders of small and medium sized businesses in Saxony-Anhalt are openly backing the far right. The sector, known as the Mittelstand, forms the backbone of the German economy. Many business owners are desperate for cheaper energy and are drawn to the party because of its support for domestic nuclear power and Russian fossil fuels.
Seeking a new economic approach
Others fear the Christian Democrats will be forced into an alliance with Die Linke, the successor to the ruling party of the former East Germany. One businessman and former donor to the Christian Democrats told German media he had not protested in 1989 to see the left bring socialism back to the region.
A group of business figures views a potential Alternative for Germany government in Saxony-Anhalt as a testbed for new economic policies. Theo Muller, the head of a major dairy company founded by his grandfather, has publicly supported this approach. He previously described Alternative for Germany leader Alice Weidel as a friend and suggested the Christian Democrats should consider governing with the far right rather than the Green Party.
Muller illustrates a broader conservative fear of becoming a junior partner to left wing parties, with some arguing it is better to turn right than commit indefinitely to the left.
Campaigning on optimism
The Alternative for Germany is capitalizing on this shifting mood under Ulrich Siegmund, its young and charismatic leader in Saxony-Anhalt. Siegmund draws enthusiastic crowds at campaign events and has built a significant social media presence, with supporters asking for selfies and buying merchandise featuring his image.
While the party campaigned in 2016 on the slogan that enough was enough, Siegmund is running a permanently smiling, optimistic campaign centered on the message that everything is possible. The Alternative for Germany has professionalized its administration, membership recruitment and communications, though its manifesto still includes radical right wing policies.
The party platform includes plans for a remigration program and demands an end to what it describes as the influence of perverted left wing fanatics on the souls of children. At regional rallies, the party frequently uses the slogan calling for supporters to write history together.
International media have focused heavily on the upcoming vote, with The Atlantic predicting major progress for the Alternative for Germany and the French newspaper Le Monde highlighting the enthusiastic crowds at its rallies.
The significance of the September 6 election goes beyond whether the Alternative for Germany manages to govern alone. Even if the political firewall remains standing when the polls close in Saxony-Anhalt, the ground beneath it has already given way. The party is no longer just protesting from the sidelines and is now widely viewed by voters, employers and parts of the center right as a credible governing force.
