El Niño is expected to intensify in the coming months and reach very strong intensity before peaking at the end of this year, raising the risk of extreme weather events in different parts of the world. The warning was issued on Thursday, September 3, 2026, by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), a specialized agency of the United Nations.
According to the WMO, the probability of the phenomenon persisting until February 2027 is close to 100%. The agency described its confidence in the forecast as exceptionally high, citing agreement among climate models and signals observed in the ocean and atmosphere.
El Niño is characterized by an abnormal warming of surface waters in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, which alters atmospheric circulation. Depending on the region, it can bring periods of intense rainfall, drought, heat waves and other extreme weather conditions.
Pacific Ocean shows exceptional warming
The main sign of the phenomenon's intensification is in the Pacific Ocean. The WMO recorded sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific well above average.
The Niño 3.4 index, used to track El Niño conditions, showed an average anomaly of 1.5 degrees Celsius between May and July 2026. In July, the value reached 2 degrees Celsius above average. Between late July and mid-August, weekly measurements ranged between 2.2 and 2.6 degrees Celsius above normal.
The warming was also significant below the ocean's surface. In some areas, temperatures recorded in July and early August were more than 8 degrees Celsius above average.
The organization said the conditions observed at the surface and in the deeper layers of the Pacific favor the continuation of the phenomenon and point to the possibility of even greater intensification in the coming months.
Risks could extend into 2027
The WMO forecasts that El Niño will reach very strong intensity before peaking at the end of 2026. Even after the peak, the climate impacts associated with the phenomenon could continue throughout 2027.
For the period between September and November this year, the organization's models point to a higher probability of above-average temperatures across nearly all of the planet's land areas. Rainfall patterns are also expected to shift, in a pattern consistent with the atmospheric response triggered by a strong El Niño.
The intensification of the phenomenon raises the possibility of significant changes to rainfall and temperature patterns, with risks of drought, flooding and extreme heat in different regions.
United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres said that rising sea surface temperatures put the planet in a position of greater risk from extreme weather events. He said the situation calls for action to reduce the impact on populations.
Effects will not be the same worldwide
Despite the intensity of El Niño, the WMO stressed that the strength of the phenomenon alone does not determine the scale of its effects in each country. Impacts vary according to location, time of year and interaction with other climate factors.
One factor that could alter the response to El Niño is the behavior of the Atlantic and Indian oceans. For the coming months, forecasts point to warmer than normal waters in parts of the Tropical North and South Atlantic. The formation of a positive phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole is also expected.
These simultaneous conditions could reinforce, weaken or otherwise modify the effects normally associated with El Niño in certain regions. Because of this, the WMO highlighted the need for regional climate assessments to more precisely determine the expected impacts in each location.
UN steps up preparation for extreme events
Given this scenario, the WMO has expanded its mobilization of national meteorological and hydrological services to strengthen preparation measures, forecasting and early warning systems.
WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said that different countries are already facing the effects of droughts and floods, and that the response needs to match the exceptional nature of the phenomenon.
The organization recommends that governments, humanitarian agencies and sectors vulnerable to climate effects use the forecasts to anticipate preventive measures and reduce risks to the population.
The information was released by the United Nations through its news website, which published the World Meteorological Organization's update on the intensification of El Niño.
