Ukraine's National Bank raised its 2026 real GDP growth forecast to 1.8%, restoring a figure it had cut to 1.3% in April. NBU Governor Andriy Pyshny announced the revision on July 30.
The 1.8% projection had originally been set in January before the April downgrade. Real GDP grew 0.8% year-on-year in the second quarter of 2026, rebounding from a contraction of 0.6%, Pyshny said, crediting an improved energy system and higher budget spending as uncertainty over external financial support eased.
Russia's intensified attacks on logistics infrastructure, including ports, as well as on energy facilities and businesses, are restraining stronger growth, the bank said.
Ukraine's defence-industrial complex is contributing about 1.4 percentage points to the projected annual growth, according to Pyshny. He said lending volumes are rising and plans to localise production capacity are taking shape, describing the sector as an increasingly significant economic driver even against the negative effects of continued Russian air strikes.
Outlook and risks
The NBU expects growth to accelerate to 2.8% in 2027, driven by investment in production capacity, energy sector stabilisation, larger harvests and sustained consumer demand. Its 2028 forecast was revised down to 3% from 3.7% in the April review.
Pyshny said the course of the full-scale war remains the key risk for both inflation and economic development, adding that further developments in the Middle East could also have a significant impact.
International reserves
The bank raised its forecast for international reserves at year-end 2026 to $69.7 billion from $64.8 billion, and its 2027 estimate to $73.7 billion from $66.5 billion. The NBU said the higher projections reflect inflows of foreign currency and factor in greater import needs for weapons components, which increase structural demand for foreign exchange and require expanded central bank interventions to support the currency market.
Ukraine's international reserves rose 12.1% to $51.3 billion in June. GDP growth slowed to 1.8% in 2025 from 2.9% in 2024. The government's 2026 budget forecast has been revised down to 1.6% from an initial 2.4%. The IMF cut its 2026 Ukraine growth estimate to between 1.0% and 1.6% in June and July, compared with 2% in its April World Economic Outlook.
