Russian commercial banks risk losing more than 100 billion rubles in annual commission revenue following the introduction of the digital ruble by the Bank of Russia, according to calculations by the National Rating Agency.
The credit rating firm estimated that domestic lenders could also see an outflow of bank liabilities reaching 10 percent over a five-year period as depositors transfer funds onto the central bank platform.
Analysts at the agency identified a sharp reduction in merchant acquiring operations as the primary factor behind the expected drop in bank earnings. Payment settlements in digital rubles will take place directly on the Bank of Russia infrastructure rather than passing through commercial financial institutions, depriving banks of transaction processing fees.
The agency noted that this scale of revenue loss would materialise if the digital ruble captures at least a 14 percent share of all non-cash settlements in Russia. With Russian citizens holding 67 trillion rubles across bank accounts, achieving that market share would result in an annual capital outflow of 1 trillion to 1.5 trillion rubles from commercial lenders, delivering what analysts described as a serious blow to banking margins.
Integration costs and merchant mandates
Implementing the central bank digital currency system will also impose heavy upfront expenses on financial institutions. The National Rating Agency estimates that each commercial bank must spend between 100 million and 300 million rubles to upgrade technological infrastructure and connect to the national platform.
According to a report in newspaper Kommersant, recovering those investments will take years, particularly for smaller credit organisations. Analysts calculated that with transaction fees capped at 0.1 percent for digital ruble payments, a bank must process 10 billion rubles in transactions simply to break even on its setup costs.
The financial pressure follows new regulatory requirements that came into force on September 1. Under the rules, Russia's 12 largest banks are required to offer clients the ability to conduct transactions with the digital ruble, while major retail store chains must accept the digital currency for payments.
Consumer adoption and international parallels
Central bank digital currencies are digital versions of sovereign money issued and managed directly by monetary authorities. The Bank of Russia, based in Moscow, developed the digital ruble as a third currency form alongside physical banknotes and commercial bank deposits, aiming to modernise national payments and reduce transaction expenses for businesses.
Viktor Dostov, head of the Association of Electronic Money Market Participants, said that losses in fee income would remain minor during the first two years due to low overall transaction volumes. However, Dostov warned that if the government transfers salary payments for public sector employees and state pensions to the digital ruble, the financial impact on commercial bankers could become extremely painful.
Taras Skvortsov, deputy chairman of the executive board and chief financial officer at Sberbank, Russia's largest commercial lender, said there is currently no high demand among Russians for the digital ruble. Skvortsov added that the digital currency is presently of interest only to the Central Bank of Russia itself.
Experts at the National Rating Agency modeled three potential scenarios for digital ruble adoption over the next five to seven years: a conservative, a base, and an optimistic model. The study projects that the central bank currency could account for between 5 percent and 30 percent of money turnover over that period, with analysts identifying the base scenario of 15 percent to 24 percent penetration as the most realistic outcome.
The study also highlighted the experience of China, where authorities launched the digital yuan prior to Russia's digital currency project. Despite aggressive promotional efforts, including helicopter money giveaways to encourage adoption, China has failed to achieve a significant share of national payment volume for the digital yuan. The rating agency noted that experts do not expect any noticeable growth in the popularity of the digital ruble within Russia over the next one to two years.
