Russia is losing approximately 6,000 more military personnel each month in Ukraine than it can recruit, Western officials have told The Guardian newspaper.
Although Moscow continues to enroll roughly 1,000 new soldiers each day, officials stated that over the past two months even this steady intake has failed to replace troops killed and wounded in action.
One Western official said estimates show a monthly shortfall of about 6,000 personnel between Russian combat casualties and new enlistments.
The official said Russian President Vladimir Putin has reacted to these mounting losses by escalating the conflict and intensifying strikes on Ukrainian civilians and civil infrastructure.
Russian forces have launched more than 360 missiles since the start of July, exploiting Kyiv's limited protection against ballistic missiles. Officials noted that Moscow intends to try to break the morale of Ukrainians this winter by destroying the country's energy infrastructure.
Risks of further mobilization
Western officials explained that the Kremlin's focus on long-range aerial attacks is partly driven by Putin's limited options for offsetting heavy frontline casualties through another domestic draft.
A new mobilization carries substantial political and economic risks for Moscow. When Russia last called up reserves in the autumn of 2022, about one million citizens, many of them highly skilled workers, left the country, and fewer than half have since returned.
Officials added that it is doubtful whether the Russian armed forces could absorb several hundred thousand new conscripts from a fresh draft, given existing shortages of military equipment and experienced officers.
Rhetoric and recruitment plans
Despite the ongoing threat posed by Russia, Western officials assessed that Putin has no interest in a direct military confrontation with NATO, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.
Addressing recent hostile rhetoric and allegations directed at Great Britain, one official described the statements as standard Russian military doctrine. Moscow routinely uses aggressive verbal threats to instill fear in foreign opponents and influence decision-making.
Meanwhile, data from Ukraine's Main Directorate of Intelligence, known as GUR, and its Foreign Intelligence Service, known as SZR, indicate that Russia is preparing additional recruitment drives.
Ukrainian intelligence reports show that Moscow plans an additional mobilization wave between 2026 and 2027, aiming to recruit 300,000 people this year and another 300,000 next year.
