More than 113,000 Russians have left their country through a single border crossing with Georgia in the past week, driven by rumors of an impending military mobilization, according to Politico.
The news outlet reported that Russia has increased preparatory measures in recent months. These steps include recruiting personnel, collecting more data on military reservists and expanding the powers of the National Guard.
The Kremlin has denied information about a possible mobilization. However, journalists said heavy losses on the frontline could force the government to take the step. Russian President Vladimir Putin has previously tried to avoid a forced mobilization because it would signal that the war effort is going poorly.
The current flight of citizens mirrors the mass exodus seen in September 2022, when Putin announced a partial mobilization. During that period, approximately 300,000 men left Russia, with 100,000 crossing into Georgia in the first week alone.
Georgia, a former Soviet republic in the Caucasus, allows Russians to enter without a visa and stay for up to a year. This makes the Verkhny Lars checkpoint a primary route for those fleeing.
Political impact
Despite a shortage of personnel, journalists noted that Russia is unlikely to announce a troop call-up before its upcoming parliamentary elections.
While authorities have blocked all anti-war parties from participating in the elections, Putin's United Russia party is experiencing a drop in support. United Russia is the country's dominant political faction and has held a majority in the State Duma for two decades.
An unpopular mobilization drive could damage Putin's approval ratings further.
Ukrainian intelligence
Ukrainian officials have repeatedly warned that Putin plans to announce a mobilization after the elections. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has made similar statements.
The Ukrainian Main Directorate of Intelligence recently reported that Russia plans to mobilize 300,000 military personnel this year, and another 300,000 next year.
The Wall Street Journal previously reported that the Kremlin has effectively begun preparing for the draft. Last month, Russia conducted exercises to train military officers on how to carry out mobilization measures.
