The National Bank of Ukraine revised its macroeconomic forecast and expects state and state-guaranteed debt to drop to about 90% of gross domestic product over the forecast horizon. The central bank had previously projected that public debt would significantly exceed 100% of GDP.
The central bank reported the updated figures in its latest inflation report. It stated that despite large budget deficits under moderate economic growth, public debt will decline primarily because part of international aid under the USL program will be reclassified from loans to grants.
Government Debt Estimates
The central bank forecast differs from estimates published by the Cabinet of Ministers. In its budget declaration for 2027 to 2029, the government projected that the ratio of state and state-guaranteed debt to GDP will stay above 100% throughout the period, reaching 108.7% in 2029.
Under the updated central bank forecast, the state budget deficit will increase significantly in 2026 to 35% of GDP, excluding grants in revenue. This deficit will be funded mostly through long-term support programs.
Gradual fiscal consolidation is projected in 2027 and 2028. However, the central bank noted that the deficit will narrow more slowly than previously expected due to high security and defense spending, alongside growing infrastructure reconstruction needs amid higher confirmed official financing.
Debt Figures for 2025
The Ministry of Finance previously stated that Ukrainian public debt remained below 100% of GDP in 2025. The ministry reported that Ukraine finished that year with a state debt to GDP ratio of 98.4%.
A different figure was reported by the Center for Public Finance Analysis and Public Governance at the KSE Institute. The research center estimated that Ukraine's state debt rose to 101% of GDP at the end of 2025.
