Men are twice as likely as women to suffer a dramatic drop in speed during a marathon because overconfidence causes them to start too fast, according to a major study of Berlin Marathon race times.
An international team of researchers analyzed 873,334 runner finish times from the annual 26.2-mile (42.2 km) race in the German capital to determine when participants "hit the wall", defined as slowing down by 20 per cent or more.
Gender Divide in Marathon Pacing
The researchers found that while male runners generally finished faster than female competitors, men were significantly more prone to sudden deceleration during the second half of the course.
Overall, 17.63 per cent of men hit the wall in the second half of their race compared to only 9.66 per cent of women. The study revealed that 52 per cent of women completed the course without noticeably slowing down, compared with just a third of men.
The performance gap was even more dramatic among elite non-professional runners. Among participants finishing in under three hours, men were six times more likely to hit the wall, with 1.42 per cent of men slowing down versus 0.23 per cent of women.
Men also slowed down more during the final three miles (5 km) of the marathon, dropping their pace by 18 per cent compared with just 13 per cent for women.
Ego and Pacing Strategy
Sports scientists note that physical fitness is only half the battle when running a marathon, requiring psychological discipline to stick to a clear pacing strategy. Starting too fast and burning through energy stores early remains a primary cause of poor performance.
Top runners in the world now aim for negative splits, accelerating during the second half of the race. Sabastian Sawe set the first official sub-two-hour marathon time in London this year, running the second half of his record attempt 88 seconds faster than the first.
Key Factors in Faster Marathon Times
Modern elite athletes combine several strategies to push marathon performance to record levels:
- Efficiency-enhancing super shoes
- Better fuelling and nutrition strategies
- More focus on durability
- Massive volumes of running during training
- Psychological advantages from the "Roger Bannister effect"
- Better drafting from more athletes staying grouped at sub-two-hour pace
Decades of Stable Marathon Data
The research, published in the journal Scientific Reports, showed that the gender divide was remarkably consistent across races between 1999 and 2025. This long-term stability indicates the trend is not caused by temporary training or nutrition fads.
Scientists selected the Berlin Marathon because its flat profile and stable weather conditions prevent terrain changes from skewing the results.
Previous studies suggested women might be naturally better at conserving glycogen, a form of glucose stored in the body for energy. However, researchers argued that if the divide were purely physiological, such a large gap would not exist between the fastest men and women. Instead, they concluded that hitting the wall is primarily a pacing issue driven by overconfidence.
Expert Views on Male Overconfidence
Dr Olivier Roy-Baillargeon, a marathon expert from The Running Clinic who was not involved in the study, said pacing discipline in the opening miles dictates final outcome.
"The main challenge of the marathon is to estimate during the first 30 minutes of the race how you will feel during the last 30 minutes of the race," Roy-Baillargeon told the Daily Mail. "And my triple experience in coaching, racing and pacing marathons shows me that female athletes tend to be a lot better than male athletes at nailing that estimate."
Previous studies have shown that men are more likely to overestimate their abilities and take bigger risks in competition, leading them to start too fast and exhaust energy supplies. Ego convinces male runners they can maintain speeds beyond their actual fitness level.
"I always tell my athletes that the first half of the race should feel much too easy, because the second one will feel so damn hard," Roy-Baillargeon added.
The Super Shoe Technological Revolution
In addition to pacing strategy, equipment advances have significantly altered marathon running times. The debate over super shoes began in 2016 when Nike launched its £240 Vaporfly trainer ahead of the Olympic marathon in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.
All three male medallists at the 2016 Rio Olympics wore prototype versions of the shoe, which features carbon fibre plates and thick elastic foam. The technology was later introduced to track races from 2018.
Jonathan Taylor, a sports researcher at Teesside University in England, described the rapid adoption of lightweight footwear as a "technological arms race", noting the trainers are now almost universal among elite road runners.
Experts estimated the Vaporfly improved running economy in highly trained runners by four per cent compared to standard running shoes, delivering a three per cent performance boost. Since 2016, the top 50 male marathon runners have improved finish times by about two per cent on average, largely due to carbon fibre technology.
Similar technology was transferred into track spikes in 2019, causing middle-distance and long-distance records to fall. In January 2020, governing bodies introduced sole thickness limits for track spikes used in events other than high jump and long jump, capping thickness at 20mm for races up to 400m and 25mm for longer distances.
However, experts say the regulations remain far too lenient, arguing rules should be tightened to ban air pods embedded in running spikes.
