President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leads Senator Flávio Bolsonaro by six percentage points in a simulated presidential runoff in the northern state of Pará.
A survey conducted by the Real Time Big Data institute, released on Monday, September 28, 2026, shows Lula holding 44 percent of voting intentions in the state. Bolsonaro, his direct rival in the head-to-head simulation, registered 38 percent of voter preference among the local electorate.
When analyzing total votes in the decisive round, voters who plan to cast blank or spoiled ballots make up 9 percent of the electorate in Pará. An identical 9 percent of respondents said they were undecided or did not answer the survey.
Candidates and party rivalry
Lula represents the left-wing Workers' Party, known as the PT, and currently serves as Brazil's head of state. Bolsonaro, a federal senator representing Rio de Janeiro, is a member of the right-wing Liberal Party, or PL, and the eldest son of former president Jair Bolsonaro.
Both campaigns have utilized their rival's rejection rates to court tactical votes during the final stretch of the campaign. Bolsonaro also decided to take part in an election debate even without Lula attending.
Pará, situated in northern Brazil, is the country's second-largest state by geographic area. Under Brazil's two-round electoral system, a presidential election moves to a runoff between the two leading candidates if no contender wins an outright majority in the opening vote. A separate survey in Pará by research firm Quaest placed Lula at 40 percent and Bolsonaro at 35 percent in a first-round matchup.
Polling methodology and registration
The Real Time Big Data poll surveyed 1,600 voters across Pará between September 23 and September 26, 2026. The study has a margin of error of plus or minus two percentage points, with a 95 percent confidence interval.
The research was officially registered with Brazil's Superior Electoral Court, known as the Tribunal Superior Eleitoral or TSE, under protocol BR-00891/2026. Under Brazilian electoral rules, all polling organizations must register their survey methodology, client data, and sample criteria with the court before publishing results.
