A poll released Tuesday by the Quaest Institute showed Senator Flávio Bolsonaro of the Liberal Party (PL) leading the first-round race for Brazil's presidency among voters in São Paulo state, with 31% of voting intentions, narrowly ahead of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of the Workers' Party (PT), who registered 30%.
Augusto Cury, of Avante, came in third with 8%, according to the survey. Ronaldo Caiado, of the Social Democratic Party (PSD), polled 4%, while Renan Santos, of Missão, had 2%.
Three candidates were tied at 1% each: Romeu Zema, of the Novo party, Wilson Grassi, of Democrata, and Samara Martins, of UP.
Four other candidates, Edmilson Costa of PCB, Rui Costa Pimenta of PCO, Hertz Dias of PSTU and Clariana Barão of DC, did not register any support in this round of the survey.
Blank and null votes, along with respondents who said they would not vote, accounted for 10% of the total. Another 12% said they remained undecided.
The same poll also tested an alternative scenario that included the participation of Pablo Marçal, of the Brazilian Labour Renewal Party (PRTB), Quaest said.
Who Are the Candidates
Flávio Bolsonaro is a senator for Rio de Janeiro and the eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro. He was elected to the Senate in 2018 after previously serving as a state lawmaker in Rio de Janeiro.
Lula, a former metalworker and union leader, served two previous terms as president, from 2003 to 2010, before returning to office in 2023 after his earlier corruption convictions were overturned. São Paulo is Brazil's most populous state and carries the country's largest electoral college.
Quaest is one of Brazil's most closely watched polling firms, and its surveys are regularly used by broadcasters and campaigns to gauge voter sentiment ahead of national elections.
Brazil's Two-Round Election System
Brazil elects its president through a two-round system. If no candidate wins more than half of the valid votes in the first round, the top two finishers advance to a runoff. Brazil's next general election is scheduled for October 2026, when voters will also elect state governors and members of Congress.
How the Poll Was Conducted
Quaest interviewed 1,800 people across São Paulo state between September 4 and 7. The survey carries a margin of error of two percentage points in either direction, with a confidence level of 95%.
The poll was commissioned by the broadcaster Globo and is registered with Brazil's Superior Electoral Court, known as the TSE, under protocol number SP-00959/2026.
