Brazil’s political centre holds strong reservations about Flávio Bolsonaro, while fragmentation on the right is boosting the Workers’ Party’s reach online, according to data scientist Sergio Denicoli, CEO of AP Exata.
Denicoli told WW that the left had learned from its 2018 defeat and rebuilt its social media presence steadily, noting that by 2022 it had established itself far more effectively than four years earlier.
He argued that internal disputes within the right were allowing the PT to dominate digital platforms almost unopposed, saying that when one side of a political field is divided by infighting while the other speaks largely alone, controlling the online narrative becomes far easier.
Centre opening and third-way candidates
Denicoli pointed to data gathered during the PSD convention, where Ronaldo Caiado was launched as a pre-candidate. After Caiado criticised both Lula and Bolsonaro, 35 percent of people who commented on the issue expressed support for Caiado, according to Denicoli.
He identified Renan Santos of Missão as another potential third-way figure, describing Santos as having a strong organisation, high-visibility pre-campaign activity, and proposals that were making a difference.
Denicoli concluded that the right’s fragmentation was deeply damaging to that political camp and that candidates outside the two main poles needed to improve their social media organisation to win over undecided centre voters.
