The US dollar is expected to trade within a narrow range of 44.4 to 44.8 hryvnia on Ukraine's interbank market between 14 and 20 September, according to Taras Lyesovyi, director of the financial markets and investment department at Globus Bank. The euro will likely see wider swings, moving between roughly 51 and 52.5 hryvnia, driven by fluctuations in the international euro/dollar pair, he told UNIAN.
Lyesovyi said next week would most likely pass without any sharp currency movements, though he cautioned that the mechanism behind this stability is far more complicated than it looks, since demand for foreign currency on the interbank market continues to exceed supply.
He explained that Ukraine's economy depends on large volumes of imports, and that purchases of fuel, energy equipment and other critical goods are becoming especially important ahead of a difficult autumn and winter. Exports, which would normally supply much of the country's foreign currency earnings, are increasingly constrained, he said, creating a currency gap that the National Bank of Ukraine has largely had to cover itself.
Rising Costs Despite a Stable Rate
Lyesovyi added that Ukrainian businesses are increasingly having to operate without being able to accurately forecast future costs. Companies must factor in risks such as damage to production facilities, power outages, more expensive logistics, the need for backup power sources and possible future disruptions, he said.
As a result, some of these future risks are already being built into the prices of goods and services today, he said. He said prices for certain goods and services could rise by about 5% during September, and by as much as 10% if supply were to fall sharply.
This can produce what looks like a paradox for consumers: the dollar holding steady while prices keep climbing. But Lyesovyi said there was no contradiction, since in wartime conditions the exchange rate is no longer the sole or main driver of inflationary pressure.
Forecast to September 20
For the period up to 20 September, Lyesovyi forecast the interbank rate would stay within 44.4 to 44.8 hryvnia per dollar and 51 to 52.5 hryvnia per euro. On the cash market, he expects the dollar to range between 44.5 and 45 hryvnia, with the euro again between 51 and 52.5 hryvnia.
Who Is Taras Lyesovyi
Lyesovyi is director of the financial markets and investment department at Globus Bank. He graduated from Kyiv State Economic University in 1998 with a degree in finance and credit and holds a master's degree in economic sciences. He has nearly 30 years of experience in Ukraine's banking sector, having worked at Bank Ukraina from 1998 to 2000, Natsionalni Investytsii from 2000 to 2005, Ukrgazbank from 2005 to 2009 and again from 2010 to 2014, and Globus Bank from 2009 to 2010 and again since 2015.
Latest Exchange Rates
PrivatBank's dollar rate rose by 5 kopecks on 10 September to 44.85 hryvnia, while its euro rate climbed 10 kopecks to 52.35 hryvnia. In currency exchange offices, the average dollar rate stood at 44.80 hryvnia, with dollars selling for 44.70 hryvnia. The cash euro rate was 52.20 hryvnia, with a selling rate of 52 hryvnia.
