Tropical Storm Moke formed in the Pacific Ocean just before 5pm ET on Friday, August 21, and is tracking toward Hawaii with sustained winds of 45 mph. The storm is expected to bring heavy rainfall, dangerous ocean surf, and additional flooding to the island chain.
The new system arrives just one week after Hurricane Lala devastated the state, killing at least two people and destroying more than 100 homes. Emergency officials fear Moke will trigger fresh flooding and mudslides on Hawaii's Big Island, where ground is already saturated from previous rainfall.
Heavy rainfall from Moke is projected to begin impacting the Big Island late Saturday night before spreading westward across the remaining Hawaiian Islands through Sunday and Monday. The National Hurricane Center issued a warning about the impending weather system.
"Heavy rainfall associated with Moke will begin to impact the Big Island of Hawaii late Saturday night, with rain spreading westward across the remainder of the Hawaiian Islands Sunday into Monday," the National Hurricane Center stated in an official advisory.
"This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides for the windward and southeast Big Island, especially in steep terrain and over areas that were affected recently by Lala," the hurricane center added.
Rainfall projections and island impacts
Forecasters project that a large portion of the Big Island, officially named Hawaiʻi Island, will receive four to 12 inches of rain over the weekend. Certain areas could see totals as high as 15 inches as the storm passes.
Although Moke is expected to track farther south than Hurricane Lala, its rain bands extend roughly 200 miles from the storm center. These extensive bands reach key tourist destinations and major cities, including Honolulu and Waikiki on Oahu, as well as Kahului and Kihei on Maui.
Tropical Storm Moke is not predicted to reach hurricane strength, meaning its sustained winds will remain below 74 mph. However, meteorologists warned that Moke is significantly larger in geographic area than Hurricane Lala was when it struck the state.
"Given the intense rain impacts from Lala last weekend, this is a vulnerable region that needs to be prepared for more flooding," said Alex DaSilva, lead hurricane expert at private forecasting service AccuWeather.
Recovery from Hurricane Lala
The state of Hawaii is still reeling from the impact of Hurricane Lala, which swept across the island chain on August 15. The storm caused estimated damages between $3 billion and $5 billion across multiple islands.
Hawaii Governor Josh Green noted that intense flooding and mudslides during Lala completely washed away numerous residential homes on the Big Island. The previous storm impacted the entire state, including the heavily populated islands of Oahu, Maui, and Kauai.
Two tropical weather systems affecting Hawaii in back-to-back weekends is an uncommon occurrence for the Pacific state. The last time two storms impacted Hawaii within a two-week span occurred a decade ago in 2016, when Tropical Storm Madeline and Hurricane Lester passed near the state.
Rip current warnings and storm path
Beyond terrestrial flooding, weather authorities warned of hazardous ocean conditions. The National Hurricane Center reported that life-threatening surf and rip current conditions may develop along Hawaiian coastlines over the weekend.
A rip current is a strong, narrow channel of fast-flowing water that moves rapidly away from the shore, capable of pulling ocean swimmers out to sea. These currents present severe hazards even to experienced swimmers by causing exhaustion as individuals attempt to swim against the flow rather than parallel to the coastline.
Tropical Storm Moke continues to move on its trajectory toward Hawaii. Weather models project the cyclone to pass approximately 180 miles directly south of the Big Island on Sunday afternoon.
El Nino and Pacific hurricane outlook
Meteorologists have attributed the heightened tropical activity in the Pacific to the emergence of a super El Nino pattern in June 2026. El Nino is a natural climate event marked by significantly warmer sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, which alters global weather conditions.
The warmer ocean waters provide thermal energy that fuels tropical cyclone development across the Pacific basin. Back in May, forecasters at AccuWeather correctly predicted an increased risk of direct tropical impacts for Hawaii during the 2026 hurricane season, which runs through November 30.
AccuWeather has projected a total of 17 to 22 named storms across the Pacific Ocean this year. Between nine and 13 of those storms are expected to become hurricanes, with up to eight predicted to reach major hurricane status at Category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale.
Ten named storms have already formed in the Pacific basin so far this season. DaSilva explained how global climate conditions are driving the elevated storm activity.
"This year, sea-surface temperatures are again well above average, while El Nino is contributing to less-hostile winds across the Pacific basin," DaSilva said.
"Those conditions are a major reason AccuWeather correctly predicted back in May that Hawaii faced an increased risk of direct tropical impacts," he added.
