Early investors in SpaceX stand to share a windfall of up to $1 trillion this week when a 180-day restriction on selling their shares expires on Thursday, in what is set to be one of the biggest payouts in stock market history.
The lock-up expiry comes despite a steep fall in SpaceX’s share price since the company listed on the Nasdaq exchange on June 12 in what was billed as the biggest flotation ever. Shares were offered at $135 each, briefly topped $200, and have since dropped to $108, valuing SpaceX at $1.5 trillion.
Even so, investors who bought shares in a private sale roughly a year ago, when SpaceX was valued at about $400 billion, still stand to nearly quadruple their money. That sale predated SpaceX’s acquisition of artificial intelligence start-up xAI earlier this year, a deal that pushed the company’s valuation to $1 trillion.
SpaceX shares have fallen further in recent weeks as traders turned away from AI stocks and after the company aborted a Starship rocket launch due to an engine problem. “SpaceX’s price since listing has been bumpier than a ride in one of its rockets re-entering the atmosphere,” said Russ Mould, investment director at broker AJ Bell.
To prevent a flood of selling, SpaceX staggered release dates for early investors. Some will not be able to exit until early December. Elon Musk, who owns the vast majority of the company, cannot sell his stake until June next year.
SpaceX will report its first quarterly results since listing two days before the lock-up expires. Analysts expect sales of just under $7 billion for the quarter. The previous quarter saw a loss of $4.3 billion on sales of $4.7 billion, and break-even remains years away because of the cost of building and running data centres that power its AI operations.
Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas said the sell-off has pushed shares near a level that implies investors place no value on the AI business, calling the situation “an attractive entry point in SpaceX shares.” He estimated the stock could reach $300, with half of that value coming from the AI unit.
