Jean-Luc Mélenchon is now positioned to reach the second round of France's 2027 presidential election, likely facing Marine Le Pen, according to an opinion poll published Monday by Harris interactive-Toluna.
The survey, carried out for broadcasters M6 and RTL, tested five different first-round scenarios. In three of them, the La France Insoumise leader advances to a runoff against Le Pen. In a fourth scenario, he finishes level with former prime minister Édouard Philippe.
Mélenchon's rising momentum
The results mark a clear rise for Mélenchon, a four-time presidential candidate who was credited with just 12% of voting intentions in an April survey by the same pollster. He is now polling between 16% and 17%.
The poll comes as Mélenchon has just held his political rentrée before several thousand LFI activists in Châteauneuf-sur-Isère, in the Drôme department.
In the poll's central scenario, which includes Raphaël Glucksmann (10%), Gabriel Attal (8%), Édouard Philippe (14%) and Bruno Retailleau (6%) alongside Mélenchon on 16%, the Insoumis leader would edge into second place behind Le Pen.
Scenarios without Attal or Philippe
Even if Gabriel Attal or Édouard Philippe were to withdraw, Mélenchon could still fancy his chances, the poll suggests. Without a Renaissance candidate in the race, Mélenchon and Philippe are shown level on 17% each.
In another scenario, without Philippe, the mayor of Le Havre, Attal would take between 14% and 15%, while Mélenchon would still reach 17%.
Only one configuration puts Philippe ahead of Mélenchon: one in which Attal opts not to run and François Hollande, on 8%, carries the social democratic banner instead of Glucksmann. In that case, Philippe would take 19% against Mélenchon's 17%.
Le Pen far ahead in every matchup
Across the poll, Marine Le Pen leads comfortably, drawing between 35% and 38% of voting intentions. The Rassemblement National figurehead would win a runoff against any of the candidates tested.
Against Mélenchon, she would take the runoff 68% to 32%. Against Attal, the margin would be 57% to 43%, and against Philippe, 55% to 45%.
Philippe, the mayor of Le Havre, had until now appeared to be the candidate best placed to defeat Le Pen in a second round.
How the poll was conducted
Mélenchon leads La France Insoumise, the hard-left party he founded, and has run for the presidency four times previously. Le Pen leads the Rassemblement National, the far-right party she has headed since 2011, and has reached the presidential runoff in 2017 and 2022.
The poll was carried out online on August 18 and 19 among a sample of 1,764 people, representative of the French population aged 18 and over, using the quota method. The margin of error ranges between 1.4 and 3.1 percentage points.
