Scientists at Northeastern University have created a new algorithm that measures and ranks World Cup soccer matches for excitement, placing Belgium against Senegal first.
The model evaluates five key factors using over 3,400 data points to give each match a rating from 0 to 10, with 10 representing the most exciting game possible.
According to the model, Belgium's Round of 32 game against Senegal topped the list as the most exciting match so far, scoring an impressive 9.65 out of 10. Norway's clash against the Ivory Coast followed closely in second place with a rating of 9.49 out of 10.
World Cup excitement ranking results
In the hugely talked-about Round of 32 fixture, Belgium came back from 2-0 down with five minutes of normal time left to win 3-2 after extra time and knock Senegal out of the tournament.
Norway's match against the Ivory Coast in the Round of 32 earned the second spot after a late winner from striker Erling Haaland sent Norway through following an Ivory Coast comeback in a 2-1 victory.
Paraguay's clash with Germany ranked third on the list with a score of 9.47 out of 10 after Paraguay won 4-3 on penalties following a 1-1 draw in the Round of 32.
Argentina's 3-2 extra-time victory over Cape Verde in the Round of 32 placed fourth with a score of 9.46, ahead of Norway's 2-1 win over Brazil in the Round of 16, which rated at 9.43 out of 10.
Argentina's 3-2 Round of 16 win against Egypt also scored 9.43 out of 10 to tie for fifth position.
Portugal's 2-1 Round of 32 win over Croatia, Algeria's 3-3 group stage draw with Austria, and Brazil's 2-1 Round of 32 victory over Japan each recorded a rating of 9.41 out of 10.
Turkey's 3-2 group stage win against the United States rounded out the top 10 most exciting matches with a rating of 9.40 out of 10.
England omission and algorithm limits
England fans might be surprised to learn that none of England's tournament clashes made it into the top 10 list produced by the researchers.
Professor Brennan Klein acknowledged: "Reducing soccer to data risks stripping out some of its human richness - such as the Mexico-England match which, despite a tense atmosphere and exciting finish, didn't crack the top 10."
The research team acknowledged that the mathematical model has limits and does not account for human richness. "The project [is] a way to better understand what draws viewers into a match," the researchers said.
Five factors of the excitement algorithm
The algorithm, dubbed the 'Excitement Ranking', measures match intensity across five key criteria.
Stakes - what the result means for both squads and what stage of the tournament the game was in - account for 24 per cent of the total score.
Spectacle, which measures the gameplay itself, also makes up 24 per cent of the overall rating.
Chances account for 20 per cent, measuring the quality of scoring chances, shot volume, shots on target, and the quality of goalkeeper saves.
Drama accounts for another 20 per cent, tracking momentum swings, lead changes, and the amount of time the match was tied or within a single goal.
Payoff accounts for the remaining 12 per cent of the score. "[This is] goals, weighted by the tension they release," the researchers explained. "Think of it like an 89-minute equalizer rates higher than a team's sixth goal in a rout."
Rise in World Cup red cards
The excitement ranking comes shortly after the same research team from Northeastern University revealed that the number of red cards issued has more than tripled compared with the past two World Cup tournaments.
Scientists reviewed match data and found that a whopping 13 red cards have already been given out during the tournament in North America.
For comparison, just four red cards were issued in both the 2018 tournament in Russia and the 2022 tournament in Qatar.
According to the experts, advancements in the video assistant referee (VAR) system are largely to blame for the surge in dismissals.
"Three of the red cards issued, for example, were initially designated as yellow-card offenses but were upgraded after referees viewed the VAR footage, the data shows," the researchers explained.
"Those included Qatar's Homam Ahmed's last-man foul on Canada's Tajon Buchanan in a group-stage match on June 18; Qatar's Assim Madibo's leg-breaking tackle on Canada's Ismaël Koné in that same group-stage match; and Iraq's Rebin Sulaka's DOGSO on Senegal's Sadio Mané in a group-stage match on June 26."
