The Brazilian Senate election on February 1 between incumbent Davi Alcolumbre and challenger Rogério Marinho will determine whether Congress moves to impeach Supreme Court justices.
The vote to lead the 81-seat chamber for the next two years will decide the fate of opposition proposals to weaken the Federal Supreme Court, known in Brazil as the STF. Measures under consideration include removing justices from office and stripping specific constitutional powers from the bench.
Opposition lawmakers already hold significant backing in the upper house. According to a survey by the Ranking dos Políticos research centre reported by CNN, 54 of the 81 senators favour impeaching members of the court, reaching the two-thirds majority required under Brazilian law to remove a justice.
Conservative majority in the upper house
The legislative push against the judiciary does not depend on President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of the Workers' Party, despite his victory in this year's presidential election. Advancing such measures relies instead on the Senate president, who controls the legislative timetable, decides which bills reach the floor, and organizes the voting.
Conservative forces will hold expanded influence in the legislature following recent election gains. Starting in 2027, the right-wing Liberal Party of Senator Flávio Bolsonaro will form the largest single bloc in the 81-seat Senate.
Parties from the centrão, an informal coalition of center-right political groups that backed Flávio Bolsonaro, also achieved strong election results. Their victories give the political right and its allies a significant presence across the National Congress.
Under Brazil's constitution, the Senate holds the exclusive legal authority to try and convict Supreme Court justices on impeachment charges. Because the Senate president decides whether to accept or shelve those petitions, the office acts as the sole gatekeeper for any disciplinary motions against the 11-member court.
Alcolumbre and the presidential alliance
Current Senate President Davi Alcolumbre, who represents the northern state of Amapá for the centre-right party União Brasil, is running for re-election. He is expected to receive backing from President Lula in the February contest.
Lula views Alcolumbre as an important ally to maintain dialogue between the executive branch and a conservative-leaning legislature. Government strategists believe that keeping Alcolumbre in charge improves the chances of passing the administration's policy proposals through Congress.
A victory for Alcolumbre would also ease pressure on the judiciary. A wing of the Supreme Court would feel less threatened with the incumbent remaining in office, especially given his close relationship with Justice Alexandre de Moraes, the primary target of conservative impeachment motions.
During Alcolumbre's administration, at least 109 impeachment petitions against Supreme Court justices accumulated in the presidency drawer without moving forward, according to CNN. Re-electing him would point toward a conciliatory approach that leaves room for negotiations and political deals.
Rogério Marinho and the opposition challenge
Senator Rogério Marinho of the Liberal Party, representing the northeastern state of Rio Grande do Norte, has emerged as the main challenger. If elected, Marinho would steer the chamber toward an aggressive posture against the high court, in line with opposition demands.
Speaking to journalists earlier this month, Marinho said the incoming Senate would not remain passive before the court. He stated that the goal of the conservative opposition was to rebuild the country and ensure that the separation of powers between the branches of government was respected.
An election victory for Marinho on February 1 would mark a sharp change in direction at the top of the chamber, opening the way for more incisive Senate action against the Supreme Court.
