- WTI remains stable below $100 as traders ponder various issues in the crude oil market.
- OPEC+ supply concerns amid expectations of a further drop in Russian production and difficulties in Libya are keeping prices above $100.
- But growing concerns about slowing global growth this week prevented WTI from reaching $110.
Crude oil markets are trading stable, with WTI futures of the first month trading near the $103.00 level, with the 21 and 50 day moving averages (DMAs) at $102.70 and just below $101.00 limiting price action as oil traders ponder various competitive themes. There has been talk all week about a possible EU ban on imports of Russian crude oil, which could put further pressure on the nation’s production. The International Energy Agency already predicts that Russian production will fall by as much as 3 million barrels per day (BPD) by May.
Meanwhile, oil traders have also had to deal with increased concerns about the production capacity of other major OPEC+ producers, after news broke earlier this week about disruptions in Libya (a deficit of 550,000 , the state-owned oil producer said) and a Reuters survey revealed OPEC+ output missed its output target by 1.5 million barrels per day in March. Fears over short-term crude oil market tightness keep WTI supported above $100 a barrel for now.
But oil traders have also had to grapple with growing fears of slowing global growth as runaway global inflation prompts central banks to tighten financial conditions and amid the negative impact of the Russo-Ukrainian war and the most recent closures in China. This, combined with some talk of the Kazakh Caspian Pipeline Consortium (which transports roughly 1 million BPD or 1% of world supply) soon to return to full capacity, keeps WTI pegged below $100 for now.
Later in the session, oil traders will look at what various central bankers, including the Fed’s Jerome Powell and the ECB’s Christine Lagarde, have to say about monetary policy, and whether this affects broader risk appetite. .
Technical levels
Source: Fx Street
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