Above average market expectations, October inflation, released this Wednesday (10) by the IBGE, has already led financial institutions to revise their forecast for the year.
The IPCA accelerated to 1.25% in the month, after rising 1.16% in September. The market median was 1.05%.
In 12 months, the index went to 10.65%, well above the government’s target ceiling of 5.25%.
Bank of America, for example, now expects the index to rise 10.1% in 2021, from a previous projection of 9.1%. Already Citi increased its estimate in the same period to 10.4%, compared to 9.5%.
In this week’s Focus Bulletin, which brings together the calculations of the main institutions and analysis houses in the country, the IPCA for the year is 9.33% and 4.63% for 2022. A month ago, estimates were 8.59 % and 4.17%, respectively.
“In a scenario of intense inflationary pressures and a worsening balance of risks, the probability of the central bank being able to drive inflation towards the 3.50% target in 2022 is very low”, said Goldman Sachs in a report released on Wednesday. fair.
The main villains in the rise in prices in October were fuel, especially gasoline, and electricity, which is more expensive due to the water crisis that the country is going through.
The average price of a liter of regular gasoline at gas stations in the country reached R$ 6.71, in the week between October 31st and November 6th. The information was released last Monday (8) by the ANP (National Agency for Petroleum, Natural Gas and Biofuels).
Despite having exceeded most expectations, the October value is within expectations in the current scenario, says Tatiana Nogueira, economist at XP.
She explains that the feeling of surprise was similar to the preview of October inflation, measured by the IPCA-15. “At the time, the highlight was the acceleration in services. In today’s release, the surprise was more general, with industrial prices being the ones that deviated the most”.
“The month’s surprise above forecast confirms a challenging inflation reading, pressured both by the ongoing transfers of high production costs and by the effect of the acceleration of services prices”, he says.
XP’s projection for the 2021 IPCA, currently at 9.5%, is being revised with an upward bias.
According to Trading Economics, Brazil is the third country with the worst inflation, behind Argentina and Turkey, respectively.
*With information from Reuters and Agência Brasil
Reference: CNN Brasil
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