Why Israel is threatening to bomb one of Assad’s palaces

By Paul Iddon

In August 2003, Israeli warplanes “struck” the summer palace of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in the province of Latakia in the west of the country. The Israeli jets reportedly flew so low that they broke the windows of the palace. Assad was not there at the time in question, while he was allegedly informed of the incident a few days later. The “buzz” was a clear warning to the Syrian president about his support for Hezbollah. After all, the “visit” of the Israeli planes took place after the death of a 16-year-old Israeli boy in the city of Shlomi from anti-aircraft missiles fired by Hezbollah.

A similar incident happened after about 3 years, in June 2006, at the same seaside palace. Israeli jets flew “so low as to shake the ground”. This time, Assad was reportedly inside the palace compound. The new “buzz” came in the wake of the kidnapping of 19-year-old Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit by Hamas. Syria then hosted the leader of Hamas, Khaled Meshaal, and the Israeli “strike” was a clear warning to Assad about his support for the organization.

These overflights were intended to demonstrate Israel’s ability to – potentially – eliminate the Syrian president if he crossed certain Tel Aviv “red lines”. In light of these two incidents, the unconfirmed report by the Saudi Elaph portal in mid-June that Israel threatened to bomb one of Assad’s palaces if he continued to allow Iran to smuggle weapons through Syria, it is likely to be true.

The report came a few days after Israel bombed the Damascus airport, which remained closed for about two weeks. The attack on the airport was one of Israel’s most significant airstrikes in Syria – which have been ongoing for a decade – and showed how determined Israel is to stop Iran’s arms smuggling into Syria.

Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett has repeatedly likened Iran’s paramilitary network in the Middle East to an octopus whose tentacles threaten Israel, and has vowed that his government will target the head of that “octopus.”

“For decades, the Iranian regime has been terrorizing Israel and the region through its emissaries, but the head of the octopus, Iran itself, enjoys immunity,” the Israeli prime minister reiterated in late May. “As we have said before, the era of immunity for the Iranian regime is irretrievably over. Those who finance terrorists, those who arm terrorists and those who send terrorists on missions will pay a heavy price.”

The threat to target Assad’s interests due to his cooperation with Tehran’s regional proxies and arms smuggling is entirely consistent with this declared Israeli policy.

The summer palace in Lattakia, on the shores of the Mediterranean, would probably be the easiest target for Israel. However, Tel Aviv could opt for an alternative strike: at the presidential palace, the so-called People’s Palace that sits atop the Mezeh Plateau overlooking Damascus. The symbolism of the destruction of this palace would be greater.

In August 2017, another unconfirmed report said that Israel warned Russia that it would attack Assad’s palace in Damascus if Iran continued its activities in Syria.

The “People’s Palace” reportedly cost $1 billion and was completed in 1990. Demolishing it would be a major blow to Assad’s prestige, especially at a time when several Arab countries are re-approaching the regime after years of civil war. war. The smoke from the charred ruins rising from the Mezeh Plateau will not exactly be an unpleasant sight for the people of Damascus.

Syrian rebels had launched heavy missiles at the massive palace in November 2012, but missed. “Rebels have focused their efforts on attacks against symbols of Assad’s power, such as his palace,” Reuters reported at the time.

In September 2018, Israel released images taken by the Ofek 11 spy satellite to mark the 30th anniversary of its launch. The photos showed Damascus International Airport, a Syrian military base and the presidential palace – suggesting the latter could be targeted by Israeli fighters.

An Israeli strike on one of Assad’s palaces does not mean that they will annihilate the Syrian president himself. Assad owns several residences in the capital and, according to many accounts, does not spend much time in the presidential palace. The particular palace is used mainly as a meeting place for foreign leaders (with the exception of Russian President Vladimir Putin, who always invites Assad to Russia’s Khmeimim Air Base in Lattakia whenever he visits Syria) and officials, rather than as a family residence. Israel could even give notice of its impending attack, possibly through the communication mechanism it maintains with the Russian military in Syria, to guarantee that Assad will not be killed.

Bashar’s father, Hafez al-Assad, had predicted an Israeli strike on the palace before it was even completed.

In 1989, the Washington Post reported that Hafez had pledged that “the fortress was exclusively for his successor”.

“It’s a promise he’ll probably keep, but not out of generosity,” the publication commented.

“Assad is afraid that the Israeli army will kill him and that he himself will be an easy target in the palace on the plateau,” the American newspaper noted, adding: “In the event of a missile attack, Hafez would not even have time to hide in the shelter “.

“He did not underestimate the fact that his friend Moammar Gaddafi’s house in Libya had become an easy target for American bombers in 1986,” the Washington Post emphasized.

After decades, the question is not whether Israel can level any of Assad’s palaces, but whether it will decide to do so.