Of course it is little more than a hypothesis, because in the current state of affairs – with priorities changing from week to week and a progressive increase in deliveries, in addition to the approval of new vaccines (Johnson & Johnson’s is coming, EMA will give the green light in Europe within the week) – that estimate is little more than indicative. For a few weeks, the Polish startup Omni Calculator has set up a portal through which, according to its philosophy, try to calculate when it will be your turn. Like? Obviously starting from guidelines of the health authorities, mixing them with some data necessary to churn out the projection.
Omni Calculator has nothing to do with health authorities. It is neither an official nor an authorized tool, has no relevance from a factual point of view. Simply, it is limited to box the user into a category and to tell him when, based on the pace of the campaign and the priorities set by his country, he could get vaccinated. The reality is that the extremely bleak forecasts shared on social networks in recent weeks (with people fortunately for them in health and at a young age who envisaged vaccinations in the spring, yes, but in 2022) do not seem real: the increase in doses, the potential for the vaccination transform it into a real mass campaign, they will change the inertia of supply and demand. In short, if so far the problem has been the doses, by the end of March several million will begin to arrive and at that point it will be necessary to organize the demand in a more functional way.
Omni Calculator is still a good way to summarize the different phases of the campaign and the categories involved, at least for what is the plan at the moment (but, precisely, the quantities arriving, the green light to AstraZeneca over 65 and the multiplication vaccination points the cards on the table will soon change). The system asks for age, whether or not you are a health worker, guest or worker in an assisted health care residence, or whether you are carrying out a pregnancy. Then ask them any pathologies and belonging to categories such as school and university staff, armed and police forces, prison staff and community places or other essential services. He then returns his projection, estimating how many people – based on the profile summary – have priority in the queue and, based on the vaccination rhythm (currently less than 1.2 million doses per week) and the desired vaccination rate (70.8%) a window in which to receive the first and second dose.
The calculator it does not distinguish precisely the rhythms which vary from region to region, is not updated with vaccine deliveries but is fundamentally based on the pace and profile described by the user. In short, many pieces are missing and perhaps, especially for those who are healthy but not only, those projections are a bit too disheartening. The hope is that the reorganization of the campaign in recent days will also give a shock to the computer. Other companies have also set up their own calculators, and the Omni Calculator itself offers several mirrors to calculate a large amount of other information related to Sars-CoV-2, the pandemic and vaccine production.

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