On Monday, July 31, Bitcoin (BTC) is trading at around $29.3 thousand, its price has decreased by 1.5% over the past week. Specialist RBC Crypto analyzed the situation on the market and assessed the prospects for the movement of the bitcoin rate for the next seven days.
“The technical factor worked”
Financial Analyst BitRiver Vladislav Antonov
The week from 24 to 30 July passed relatively calmly. Increased volatility in the market was observed at the beginning of the week, on Monday (July 24). Sellers broke protective stops under the key support of $29,500, which allowed them to reach $28,861 by the beginning of the American session. There was no news behind the drop in quotes. The technical factor worked after a long consolidation and the inability to pass the $31,500 resistance.
Volatility in the market rose on Wednesday (July 26) after the decision of the US Federal Reserve to raise interest rates, but the speech of the head of the US central bank, Jerome Powell, also did not bring success to buyers. As expected by market participants, the Fed raised the rate by 25 bp to 5.00-5.25% per annum. In his speech, Fed Chairman Powell acknowledged the improvement in economic performance, but stressed the need for tight monetary policy to curb inflation. Further steps will depend on the statistics. According to the latest data from CME Group, market participants do not yet expect a rate increase before the end of the year.
Despite the recent partial defeat in a legal battle with Ripple Labs, U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Chairman Gary Gensler continues to be highly critical of the cryptocurrency sector, pointing out the lack of full regulation, high risks for investors and the prevalence of fraud.
Gensler warned investors that the crypto market is “infested with scammers” and investors should not assume they are receiving full protection from securities laws. He criticized crypto exchanges, pointing out the lack of transparency and risks for investors.
Investors in cryptocurrencies should take into account his warnings and understand that legislative protection here is still imperfect. The risks of losing money are high. At the same time, Ripple’s victory sets an important precedent and may strengthen the crypto industry’s position in the confrontation with regulators.
The focus of investors’ attention has now shifted to statistical data for July: indexes of business activity in the manufacturing and services sectors, a report on the labor market. They, of course, need solutions for Bitcoin spot ETFs. However, decisions on them will be in 2024 before the halving.
Against the background of the absence of strong catalysts, the recovery of BTC after Monday is weak. The price has stabilized at $29,300. Although the US stock market is showing resilience, cryptocurrency buyers do not have enough drivers for a confident rally. According to BitRiver estimates, in order to reverse the bearish mood, Bitcoin needs to gain a foothold above $30,500. First, you need to re-pass $29,500 and then test it from above with a rebound. The level can again become support for buyers.
To continue growing, it is important to keep the price above the trend line (daily timeframe) passing through $27,685. By September 1, it will shift to $30,150. For me, the beginning of autumn is the beginning of a new phase of growth. Trading volumes remain low, so downside risks to $27,700-$27,900 remain.
On Thursday (July 27), the BTC/USDt pair fell on strong Q2 US GDP data. Strong economic data is giving the Fed a free hand to raise rates further to curb inflation and bring it back to the 2% target. Therefore, risky assets react lower on such concerns.
Source: Cryptocurrency
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