USD/TRY remains in its consolidation range around 13.60

• USD/TRY remains trading within a wide range.
• Turkey’s 10-year bond yields fall to multi-day lows near 21%.
• The year-end CPI forecast and the unemployment rate is next on the economic calendar.

The Turkish lira depreciates at the beginning of the week and raises the USD/TRY to the area of ​​13.60.

USD/TRY largely remains in a consolidation mode

USD/TRY resumes uptrend and puts behind Friday’s small dip amid tepid dollar recovery and alternating trends in risk appetite as traders continue to adjust to the latest US Non-Farm Payrolls figures. .USA

The national currency adds to recent losses, particularly after inflation figures in Turkey showed consumer prices rose more than 48% in the year to January, the highest level since April 2002.

On the latter, finmin N.Nebati sees hope that inflation will peak in April and begin to decline to single-digit printing by June 2023. Nebati’s opinion (wish) that the CPI does not reach 50 % will surely be put to the test in the coming months, however.

What to look for around TRY

The pair holds the consolidative multi-session theme well in place, always within the 13:00-14:00 range. While skepticism remains high about the effectiveness of the ongoing scheme to promote de-dollarization of the economy, thereby supporting inflows into the lira, the CBRT’s reluctance to change course (collision?) and the pervasive political pressure to favor Lower interest rates in the current context of runaway inflation and (very) negative real interest rates are a sure recipe to keep the national currency under pressure for the time being.

Technical levels

So far the pair is up 0.50% at 13.5752 and a drop below 13.3054 (55-day SMA) would expose 13.2327 (monthly low Feb 1) and finally 12.7523 (low Jan 3, 2022). ). On the other hand, the next upside barrier lines up at 13.9319 (Jan 10, 2022 high), followed by 18.2582 (Jan 20 all-time high) and then 19.0000 (round level).